IEF-石油市场2024年9月报比较分析（英）

September 2024Summary and Oil Market ContextDemandOPEC has slightly adjusted its global demand growth projection downward by approximately 0.1 mb/d to 2 mb/d for 2024 year-over-year. However, this forecast remains substantially higher, by over a million barrels per day, than the estimates provided by the IEA and EIA. The EIA is also revising its global demand growth forecast downward by 0.2 mb/d for 2024 year-over-year. In contrast, the IEA has maintained its global demand growth forecasts unchanged for 2024 y/y. OPEC has also revised downward its growth forecast for 2025 by a modest 40 tb/d. The divergence in global demand growth forecasts across the three agencies for 2025 is approximately 0.7 mb/d year-over-year.SupplyOPEC has kept its projections for non-Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC) oil supply growth unchanged at around 1.3 mb/d in 2024 y/y and 1.2 mb/d in 2025 y/y. The EIA has also maintained its forecasts for non-OPEC supply growth for both 2024 and 2025 unchanged at 0.8 mb/d y/y and 1.6 mb/d for 2024 y/y and 2025 y/y, respectively. The IEA has kept its non-DoC supply growth projections unchanged for 2024 y/y while projecting a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d to 1.6 mb/d for 2025 y/y. The divergence among the short-term non-DoC supply growth forecasts from these three organizations is expected to reach 0.2 mb/d for 2024 y/y and 0.4 mb/d for 2025 y/y.Energy supply and demand: Challenges in a volatile marketMembers of the OPEC+ alliance decided to extend voluntary cuts on September 5th reportedly postponing their planned increase in oil production by 180 tb/d in October to maintain oil market stability. This decision is part of a broader strategy to gradually reintegrate a total of 2.2 mb/d of voluntary production cuts into the market over the coming months. The next meeting of the JMMC will be held on October 2nd, and then OPEC+ ministers will hold a full meeting of the group on December 1st.Beyond weakening economic trends and oil inventory build, disruptions remain a significant risk to the global energy balance. Recent oil production outages in Libya have led to temporary loss of approximately half a million barrels per day. 2Summary of 2023-2025 Balances3•OPEC has revised slightly its global demand growth forecast down to 2.0 mb/d for 2024 year-over-year, marking the second consecutive downward revision this year. For 2025, the forecast has also been adjusted for the first time to 1.7 mb/d, down from 1.8 mb/d in the previous month's revision.•Despite this modest decrease from OPEC this month, the divergence in global demand growth forecasts remains significant among the three agencies, with a difference of over one million barrels per day for 2024.•The IEA has maintained its forecast for global demand growth for 2024 and 2025 at 0.9 mb/d year-over-year and 1 mb/d year-over-year, respectively.20232023 Y/Y1Q242Q243Q244Q2420242024 Y/Y1Q252Q253Q254Q2520252025 Y/YIEA102.12.1101.4102.9103.9103.7103.00.9102.4103.7104.8104.7103.91.0OPEC102