英国国家经济和社会研究所-每月工资追踪-服务业薪酬增长持续下降（英）

“Today’s ONS figures indicate that wage growth continues to ease, recording 5.1 per cent in the three months to July (4.0 per cent including bonuses). Most notably, services sector pay growth has fallen faster than expected to 3.8 per cent, compared to an average of 5.9 per cent in the first five months of this year. This is positive news for inflation and might provide the Bank of England with increased confidence regarding interest rate cuts”. Monica George Michail Associate Economist, NIESR NIESR Monthly Wage Tracker Service Sector Pay Growth Continues to Fall Monica George Michail 10th September 2024 National Institute of Economic and Social Research niesr.ac.uk Monthly Wage Tracker September 24 - 2 - Figure 1 – Annual growth in Average Weekly Earnings, Regular Pay Main Points • Growth in average weekly earnings continues to ease in line with expectations, recording 5.1 per cent for regular pay in the three months to July 2024, and 4.0 per cent if we include bonuses. Total pay growth is affected by base effects from the one-off public sector bonus payments last year. For the third quarter of this year, we forecast these figures at 4.8 per cent, and 4.0 per cent. • Most notably, growth in services sector wage growth fell faster than expected, recording 3.8 per cent, compared to an average of 5.9 per cent in the first five months of this year. This is positive news for inflation and might provide the Bank of England with increased confidence regarding interest rate cuts. • With inflation falling, annual growth in real regular pay remains strong at 1.9 per cent in July (0.8 per cent if we include bonuses), meaning workers will see a continued recovery in their standard of living. However, we expect pay growth to continue gradually slowing as the labour market cools in the coming months. • The vacancy-to-unemployment ratio remains above pre-pandemic levels, although it has fallen in recent months amidst the labour market gradually cooling. The overall fall in this ratio will gradually reduce wage pressure, as companies don’t have to compete as hard to find workers. National Institute of Economic and Social Research niesr.ac.uk Monthly Wage Tracker September 24 - 3 - Vacancies and employment Today’s release suggests that the employment rate increased slightly to 74.8 per cent in July, and the inactivity rate fell slightly to 21.9 per cent. The unemployment rate slightly fell by 0.2 pp on the quarter, reaching 4.1 per cent. However, LFS data remains volatile so should be treated with caution. A good measure of labour market tightness is the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio. Figure 2 shows the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio recorded 0.61 in July, which continues to be higher than the pre-pandemic average of 0.52 (in 2015-2019) but lower than it was in 2022 and 2023. The number of job vacancies fell by 37 thousand in the three months to July 2024, representing a 4.1 per cent fall. These figures ind