未来能源情景2024

Future Energy Scenarios: ESO Pathways to Net ZeroJuly 2024NavigationDownload a pdfTo download a full copy of this report go to www.nationalgrideso.com/future-energy/future-energy-scenariosText Links Click/tap highlighted orange text to navigate to an external link. Or to jump to another section of the document.To help you find the information you need quickly and easily we have published the report as an interactive document.Download the PDF in Acrobat Reader to view all interactivity.Return to contentsFrom here you can navigate to any part of the publicationPage navigation explainedBack a pageForward a pageContentsForeword 04Introduction 05Executive Summary 18Reducing Great Britain’s Emissions 32The Energy Consumer 51The Energy System 86Glossary 163Continuing the conversation 167Legal notice 168FES 2024 / Foreword 04FES 2024 / Foreword 04ForewordThe evolving dynamics of the energy system call for decisive action within the next two years to deliver the fundamental changes required to achieve a fair, affordable, sustainable and secure clean energy system by 2050. This means we must prioritise steps that will enable the delivery of cleaner, cheaper energy generation whilst ensuring a resilient system that delivers security of supply for consumers. As the Electricity System Operator (ESO), we have set a target to be able to operate a net zero carbon electricity system for short durations by next year, which sets us up to be able to operate a clean power system throughout the year in the 2030s. Ongoing global conflict continues to create international uncertainty in energy markets, with the long-term consequences yet to be determined, and the cost-of-living and energy crisis continues to impact households and businesses across Great Britain. Later this year, we will transform to become the National Energy System Operator (NESO). We will put our customers, homeowners, businesses and local communities at the heart of our work; building on the strong foundations of the ESO we will deliver a future where everybody has access to clean, reliable, affordable energy. As NESO, we will take a holistic approach to planning and facilitating whole energy system decarbonisation. We will be involved in the strategic planning of gas and electricity networks, integrating them for the first time to develop a comprehensive whole system plan for future network development. We will develop a whole energy system view of future market direction so we can recommend actions to optimise markets across vectors and reduce costs for consumers. And we will also provide independent advice to Government and Ofgem on energy policy developments. Decarbonisation of the energy system is the challenge of our generation. In recognition of the expansive industry transformation required to Great Britain’s energy network planning, this year’s Future Energy Scenarios (FES) framework has evolved from ‘scenarios’ to ‘pathways’ to explore narrower ranges and strategic, credible choices t