WTO-全球贸易展望与统计（英）

Global Trade Outlookand StatisticsApril 2024About the WTOThe World Trade Organization is the international body dealing with the global rules of trade between WTO members. Its main function is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly, predictably and freely as possible, with a level playing field for all its members.1Contents1. Executive summary 22. Trade in 2023 and the outlook for 2024 and 2025 33. Drivers of trade 54. Breakdown of the trade forecast 115. Risks to the outlook 156. Trade in value terms 17a. Merchandise trade 17b. Commercial services trade 217. Global value chains and evidence of fragmentation 298. Analysis: The Suez Canal crisis 339. Appendix tables 39Appendix Table 1: 39 Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade, 2023Appendix Table 2: 40 Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade excluding intra-EU trade, 2023Appendix Table 3: 41 Leading exporters and importers of commercial services, 2023Appendix Table 4: 42 Leading exporters and importers of commercial services excluding intra-EU trade, 2023Appendix Table 5: 43 Leading exporters of digitally delivered services, 202310. Bibliography 44 GLOBAL TRADE OUTLOOK AND STATISTICS - APRIL 20242Executive summary• World merchandise trade volume is projected to grow 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, following a larger-than-expected decline of -1.2% in 2023. Import demand in real terms was weak in 2023 in most regions, especially in Europe but also in North America and Asia. The main exceptions were the Middle East and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region, where imports surged.• World real GDP growth at market exchange rates slowed from 3.1% in 2022 to 2.7% in 2023 but is expected to remain mostly stable over the next two years at 2.6% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025. The contrast between the steady growth of GDP and the slowdown in merchandise trade volume is linked to inflationary pressures, which had a downward effect on consumption of trade-intensive goods, particularly in major traders.• The US dollar value of world merchandise trade fell 5% in 2023 to US$ 24.01 trillion but this decline was mostly offset by a strong increase in commercial services trade, which rose 9% to US$ 7.54 trillion. The decline in merchandise exports was partly due to falling prices for commodities, such as oil and gas. Meanwhile, commercial services trade was lifted by recovering international travel and surging digitally delivered services.• World trade has been remarkably resilient in recent years despite the presence of several major economic shocks. By the end of 2023, merchandise trade volume was up 6.3% compared to 2019. Commercial services also increased, with annual US$ values up 21% between 2019 and 2023.• In 2024 and 2025, inflation is expected to gradually abate, allowing real incomes to grow again in advanced economies, boosting consumption of manufactured goods. A recovery of demand for tradable goods in 2024 is already evident. This is