2024年中国房地产展望报告

年月••••••介绍•••••••42024010%4%8%12%16%20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%030,00060,00090,000120,000150,000房地产开发投资（亿元）房地产开发投资同比增幅5202402051015202530352023F2024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029F2030F新能源储能 — 新增装机量 （GW）7.007.508.008.509.009.5010.0010.50绿色甲级写字楼非绿色甲级写字楼620240340.74%50.00%9.26%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%A. 是B. 否C. 不知道百万平方米67%53%35%30%22%11%9%8%0%20%40%60%80%0123456深圳广州成都武汉上海台北香港北京2024202520262027未来供应占存量比例7202404-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%服务零售餐饮收入商品零售金银珠宝类烟酒类服装、鞋帽、针纺织品类体育、娱乐用品类中西药品类石油及制品类化妆品类汽车类粮油、食品类通讯器材类日用品类家具类饮料类家用电器和音像器材类文化办公用品类建筑及装潢材料类8202405NCBD0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0102030405020182019202020212022工业增加值（万亿元）比上年增长 (%)0%10%20%30%40%50%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,000201620172018201920202021 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F预制菜市场规模（亿元）比上年增长 (%)920240601,0002,0003,0004,0005,000201720182019202020212022Q1-Q32023上海北京深圳广州其他城市香港台北16%29%25%23%28%24%13%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500201720182019202020212022Q1-Q3 2023内资境外人民币 亿元人民币 亿元user--sabrina.d.wei@cushwake.com202410•–•–•–•–03060902020 2021 2022 2023F2024F2025F2026F2027F040801201602020202120222023F 2024F 2025F 2026F写字楼零售物业存量（平方米）13,638,810 14,797,0052,944,706空置率18.7%10.3%17.4%租金（元/平方米/月）297.92,250.060.3资本化率5.0%5.6%4.9%11•–•–•–•–3.5%4.5%5.5%6.5%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023020406080202020212022 2023F 2024F 2025Fshaun.fv.brodie@cushwake.com202412•–•–•–•–万平方米010020030020202021202220232024F2025F2026F0 50 100 150 200 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F写字楼零售物业存量（平方米）16,423,19822,974,92510,476,000空置率21.8%9.6%15.1%租金（元/平方米/月）239.51,873.349.3资本化率核心4.5%新兴4.8%核心4.5%新兴4.8%4.8%202413•–•–03060901202020202120222023F2024F•–•–3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q32023xiaoduan.zhang@cushwake.com写字楼零售物业存量（平方米）8,089,175 6,599,4121,702,485空置率26.06%8.95%1.33%租金（元/平方米/月）186.45802.9551.16资本化率4.8%4.8%5.0%202414••••030609020202021202220232024F 2025F 2026F06012018020202021202220232024F 2025F 2026F202415•–•–•–•–0306090202120222023F2024F2025F2026F3%4%4%5%5%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q32023甲级写字楼零售物业xiaoduan.zhang@cushwake.com写字楼零售物业存量（平方米）6,494,9445,660,0863,524,362空置率18.68%7.23%2.47%租金（元/平方米/月）149.71710.2842.49资本化率4.5%4.4%5.0%202416•–•–•–•–040801202020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F02040608020202021202220232024F2025F2026F202417•–•–•–•–3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q32023万平方米0501001502002020202120222023F2024Fivy.jia@cushwake.com写字楼零售物业存量（平方米）3,116,0767,987,9235,790,805空置率22.36%6.5%5.3%租金（元/平方米/月）103.42617.7327.33资本化率5%-6%4%-5%5%-7%202418•–•–•–•–，01020304020202021202220232024F 2025F 2026F02040608020202021202220232024F 2025F 2026F202419•–•–•–•–03060901201502020202120222023 2024F 2025F 2026Fxiaoduan.zhang@cushwake.com写字楼零售物业物流高标库存量（平方米）3,007,267 4,053,3994,583,832 空置率35.9%13.8%21.9%租金（元/平方米/月）94.8463.925.8资本化率6.0%5.2%5.8%202420•–•–•–•–0102030402020202120222023F 2024F 2025F 2026F040801202020202120222023F 2024F 2025F 2026F202421•–•–••–03060901202020202120222023F2024Frosanna.tang@cushwake.com写字楼*零售物业存量(平方呎)68,312,500N/A35,250,900空置率18.0%8.2%7.5%租金(港币/平方呎/月)48.2616.014.8资本化率