2018养老地产展望（英文版）

Colliers InsightsValuation & Advisory Services | Asia14 May 2018SENIOR HOUSING OUTLOOK 2018GREY SKIES AND SILVER LININGSAsia is facing an ageing crisis. Advancements in healthcare provisions coupled with rising wealth levels in the region, have increased life expectancy, just as birth rates, in some Asian countries have fallen to record lows. The result is that the region’s senior (aged 65 and above) population will nearly triple by 2050 to 945 million. The number of people aged 75 and above (needing some sort of assistance in their daily lives) will jump from 137 million to 437 million over the same period. This massive demographic shift raises questions about how already strained health and pension systems can be reengineered to cope with the needs of rapidly ageing populations. Less discussed, but no less important, are the implications for housing. Traditionally, in many Asian societies, the elderly have resided with their children, but trends like smaller families and rising divorce rates have challenged this practice. More infrastructure will need to be created for the rising number of seniors who will be residing independently and to cater for those in need of different degrees of daily assistance and medical care. Devising Housing solutions for Asia’s ageing populationS E N I O R H O U S I N G O U T L O O K 2 0 1 8 | C O L L I E R S I N T E R N AT I O N A LCONFRONTING THE ‘SILVER TSUNAMI’While countries such as Japan have grappled with an ageing population for some time, others are just beginning to realise that they will need to act quickly in order to address ageing-related issues. Macau and Singapore, for example, will see their senior populations skyrocket by 301% and 195%, respectively, by 2050. S E N I O R H O U S I N G O U T L O O K 2 0 1 8 | C O L L I E R S I N T E R N AT I O N A LPROJECTED CHANGE IN THE POPULATION AGED 75 YEARS AND ABOVE, RELATIVE TO PER CAPITA GDP$00%100%200%300%400%500%$20,000$40,000$10,000$30,000GDP per capita (2016, in real USD)% change in population aged 75 and above (2017–2050)$50,000$60,000VietnamIndiaThailandChinaSouth KoreaHong KongJapanSingaporePhilippinesSource: World Bank staff estimates based on United Nations Population Division’s World Population Prospects; Oxford EconomicsNote: Marker size indicates the proportion of the population aged 75 and above versus the total population as of 2050. For comparison, Japan’s population aged 75 and above is 23% of total, while India’s senior population is 5%.Apart from the increase in the sheer number of seniors, often referred to as the ‘silver tsunami’, arguably an even more worrisome trend is the rise in the percentage of seniors in total populations. Japan’s seniors will comprise a staggering 36.4% of the population by 2050; South Korea (35.3%), Hong Kong (33.9%), Singapore (33.6%) and Thailand (29%) as the top five Asian economies with the highest percentages of seniors. One serious implication of this trend will be the decline in the