全球化和自动化是劳动力市场竞争的来源，并支持欧盟失业保险（英）

WORKING PAPER | ISSUE 13/2023 | 17 JULY 2023Recommended citation:Burgoon, B., G. Buzzelli, F. Nicoli and S. Sacchi (2023) ‘Globalisation and automation as sources of labour-market competition, and support for European Union unemployment insurance’, Working Paper 13/2023, BruegelBRIAN BURGOON, GREGORIO BUZZELLI, FRANCESCO NICOLI AND STEFANO SACCHISocieties and economies are experiencing deep and intertwined structural changes that may unsettle the perceptions European citizens have of their economic and employment security. Such labour-market perceptions are likely in turn to alter people’s political positions. For instance, those worried by labour-market competition may prefer greater social protection to compensate for the accrued risk, or might prefer more closed economies where external borders provide protection (or the illusion of protection). We test these expectations with a conjoint experiment in 13 European countries on European-level social policy, studying how citizens’ demands align with parties’ political supply. Results broadly corroborate our expectations on the moderating effects of different types of concerns about perceived sources of labour-market competition on the features of preferred European-level social policy.Keywords: global risk, migration, technological change, globalisation, social protection, Europe, welfare state, conjoint analysisBrian Burgoon is Professor of International and Comparative Political Economy at the University of AmsterdamGregorio Buzzelli is a researcher at the University of MilanFrancesco Nicoli (francesco.nicoli@bruegel.org) is a Visiting Fellow at Bruegel and an Assistant Professor of Political Economy at Politecnico di TorinoStefano Sacchi is a Professor at Politecnico di TorinoGLOBALISATION AND AUTOMATION AS SOURCES OF LABOUR-MARKET COMPETITION, AND SUPPORT FOR EUROPEAN UNION UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE1 Introduction Societies in Europe and elsewhere are experiencing deep and intertwined changes that unsettle the perceptions citizens have of their economic and employment security. Among the many changes raising concerns about labour market competition, globalisation, technological change and international migration stand out. These structural changes in the global economy have had a deep impact on western industrial societies: workers may be afraid that employers will relocate firms abroad to reduce employment costs, may fear unskilled migration exerting downward pressure on domestic wages and/or may fear technological change that might make many jobs redundant. Individuals with these fears and citizens that are less fearful are likely to have preferences that are substantially different with respect to social policy: those worried about the various threats to labour-market competition might prefer greater social security to compensate for the accrued risk, or prefer more closed economies where external borders provide protection (or the illusion of protection). Scholarship supports the expectati