2023年2月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房销售有所复苏，债券发行继续回温

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2023 年 3 月 17 日 远东研究·行业研究 摘 要 作者：梅芷菁 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 商品房量价：1~2 月份 30 大中城市商品房成交面积同比下降 13.72%，降幅明显收窄。十大城市商品房库存去化周期缩短。百城新建住宅平均价格同比下跌 0.06%，主要受到三线城市住宅价格下跌影响。 新开工面积：1~2 月全国房屋新开工面积为 13567 万 m2，同比下降 9.40%，降幅收窄，但新开工面积仍处低位。 政策：2 月份，《求是》杂志发表的习近平总书记文章中谈到，要防范房地产业引发系统性风险；证监会启动不动产私募投资基金试点；人民银行、银保监会发布《关于金融支持住房租赁市场发展的意见（征求意见稿）》。地方层面，多地下调首套房贷利率，继续积极出台购房支持政策，包括提供购房补贴、放松限购、降低房贷首付比例、提高房贷额度、放宽房贷资格限制、调整公积金政策等。 重点房企：1~2 月份 TOP100 房企销售总额同比下降4.8%；金地集团为旗下公司、卧龙地产为间接股东提供担保；中骏集团、远洋集团、恒基地产等房企获银行大额授信；旭辉集团与中国东方资产签署战略合作协议。 债券发行与到期：2 月份房地产行业共发行债券 433.48 亿元，偿还债券 882.54 亿元，通过债市净融资-449.06 亿元。 信用事件与利差：2 月份有 1 只债券违约，2 只债券展期。无主体和债券的信用级别被下调。2 月末兴业研究提供的房地产行业债券信用利差（中位数）较上月末下降 30.17BP。 总结与展望：需求方面，社会经济活动与房地产市场需求复苏，各地继续积极出台购房支持政策，未来新建商品房需求有望边际改善。供给方面，土地市场持续低迷、新开工面积处于低位或将影响未来一到两年的市场供给量。防范化解风险仍将作为房地产行业的重要任务，预期未来优质房企信用将较为稳定，同时仍需关注房地产行业的持续分化与尾部房企的违约风险。 相关研究报告： 1. 《2023 年 1 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：行业支持政策持续推出，债券发行量开始回温》，2023.2.20 2. 《多家房企实施股权增资，行业资产负债状况将改善 ——2022 年 12 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2023.1.11 3. 《2022 年 11 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：房地产企业股票融资放开，行业财务风险有望降低》，2022.12.20 商品房销售有所复苏，债券发行继续回温 ——2023 年 2 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China March 17th, 2023 Summary In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings, the floor space of commercialized buildings sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities from January to February has declined by 13.72% year-on-year, and the decline narrowed significantly. The destocking cycle of commercial housing in the ten major cities was shortened. The average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” has decreased by 0.06% year-on-year, mainly due to the decline of prices in third-tier cities. In terms of new construction area, the national new housing construction area from January to February was 135.67 million m², and declined by 9.40% year-on-year. The degree of decline narrowed, but the new housing construction area is still at a low level. In terms of policies, Qiushi Magazine published Xi’s article and he stressed the need to prevent systemic risks caused by the real estate sector. The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced a pilot program to allow PE funds to invest in residential housing, including projects under construction, affordable homes and rental projects. The People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the Draft Opinions on Financial Support for the Development of the House Rental Market, soliciting public opinion. At the local level, many places have lowered interest rates on first-home mortgages. The support policies for housing purchases have been constantly introduced in various regions, including providing subsidies for housing purchases, relaxing purchase restrictions, reducing the down payment ratio of housing loans, inc