人口老龄化与银行风险承担（英）

BIS Working Papers No 1050 Population aging and bank risk-taking by Sebastian Doerr, Gazi Kabaş and Steven Ongena Monetary and Economic Department November 2022 JEL classification: E51, G21. Keywords: Risk-taking, financial stability, low interest rates, population aging, demographics. BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2022. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) Population aging and bank risk-takingSebastian DoerrBISGazi Kaba¸sTilburgSteven OngenaUZH, SFI,KU Leuven & CEPRNovember 2022AbstractWhat are the implications of an aging population for financial stability? To ex-amine this question, we exploit geographic variation in aging across U.S. counties.We establish that banks with higher exposure to aging counties increase loan-to-income ratios, especially where they operate no branches. Laxer lending standardsalso lead to higher nonperforming loans during downturns, suggesting higher creditrisk. Inspecting the mechanism shows that aging drives risk-taking through twocontemporaneous channels: deposit inflows due to seniors’ propensity to save indeposits; and depressed local investment opportunities due to seniors’ lower creditdemand. Banks thus look for riskier clients in no-branch counties.JEL classification: E51, G21.Keywords: Risk-taking, financial stability, low interest rates, population aging, demo-graphics.Sebastian Doerr is at the Bank for International Settlements (sebastian.doerr@bis.org). Gazi Kaba¸sis at Tilburg University (g.kabas@tilburguniversity.edu).Steven Ongena is at University of Zurich,Swiss Finance Institute, KU Leuven, NTNU, and CEPR (steven.ongena@bf.uzh.ch).We thank ourdiscussants Bo Becker, Robin Greenwood, Andrew Mackinlay, George Pennacchi, Romina Ruprecht,Neeltje van Horen, and Jinyuan Zhang; as well as Adrien Auclert, Andreas Barth, Martin Brown,Tabea Bucher-Koenen, Andreas Fuster, Emilia Garcia-Appendini, Jose Jorge, Oguzhan Karakas, LucaMazzone, Kasper Roszbach, and Simon Rother. We also thank participants at the American FinanceAssociation Annual Conference, Financial Intermediation Research Society Conference, Western FinanceAssociation 2022 Meeting, FDIC 20th Annual Bank Research Conference, JFI-Nova SBE Conference onFinancial Intermediation and Corporate Finance, Norges Bank-CEPR Workshop on Frontier Research inBanking, European Economic Association Annual Conference, ZEW conference on Ageing and FinancialMarkets, SFI Research Days, Annual Meeting o