月度策略及金股组合：有挑战，配均衡

1 / 19 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 Equity Research·Strategy Research·In-depth research Strategy Research In-depth research 20220926 1. [Table_Main] Monthly Strategy & Gold Stocks: Recommend Balanced Asset Allocation in Challenging Time Viewpoint ◼ Three overseas challenges: ① Powell's hawkish pivot in Jackson Hole raised bets of another super-sized rate hike, raising the risk of U.S. stocks correction. ② Europe’s energy crisis is here to stay. ③ Asian currencies are facing depreciation pressure. ◼ Domestic equity markets may face risks of weakening liquidity margins: ① Inflation: domestic CPI may exceed 3% YoY after August, raising investors’ concerns about monetary policy; ② Excessive leverage of financial institutions: Increased leverage by financial institutions reached the highest level since 2012. ③ RMB devaluation risk: Once overseas demand shrinks and exports decline, the Central Bank may delibertely devaluate the value of RMB, causing foreign capital outflow. ◼ Pressure on the economic condition outlook: ① Economic growth under pressure in 2023: A substantial reduction in newly purchased land in 2022 means a reduction in the construction area in 2023, which may lead to a decline in the consumption of building materials; ② The decline in land fiscal revenue will restrict the potential of local government infrastructure investment; ③ Residents have low willingness to increase leverage and lack the willingness to consume and invest, which restricts economic growth. ◼ Asset allocation: Out of caution in the capital market, we recommend a more balanced allocation. We recommend energy, consumption, services, and stocks with low valuations. For popular industries, we suggest focusing on areas with new technological breakthroughs. ◼ Monthly Gold Stocks (Unit: RMB) Code Company Industry 21EPS 22EPS 21PE 22PE 002003.SZ WEIXING Textiles & Apparel 0.43 0.5 27 21 300316.SZ JINGSHENG Machinery 1.31 2.15 58 35 000568.SZ LUZHOU LAO JIAO Food & Beverage 5.41 6.82 43 34 688063.SH PYLON TECH Electrical Equipment 2.04 5.38 210 80 300763.SZ GINLONG Electrical Equipment 1.28 3.47 179 66 002036.SZ LIANCHUANG Electronics 0.11 0.29 148 56 3690.HK MEITUAN Media -2.52 1.27 / 131 300332.SZ TRCE Environmental Protection 0.23 0.46 55 28 002511.SZ C&S Light 0.44 0.54 25 20 Source: Wind, Soochow Securities (HK) Note: The closing price corresponding to PE is August 31, 2022; earnings forecasted by Soochow Securities (HK); HKD/RMB=0.8754, on August 31, 2022. Risks: Global geopolitical conflict intensifies; Less-than-expected economic growth; Experience is not indicative of the future. Research Analyst Shirui Ouyang (852) 3892 3120 ouyangshirui@dwzq.com.hk [Table_Report] Related reports 《流动性缩窄下的复苏配置——策略周聚焦》 2022-07-17 《【东吴策略】市场情绪降温，内外资偏消费——市场温度计》 2022-07-12 《逆回购缩量下的板块成交热度——策略周聚焦》 2022-07-10 Soochow Securities International Brokerage Limited would like to acknowledge the