理想汽车W(02015.HK)Q2行业因素拖累业绩表现，期待L9上市带来量利齐升

Li Auto（02015.HK）Equity Research·Company Research·Automobile (HS)1 / 9东吴证券(香港)请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分[Table_Main]2Q22 Review: Industry factors drag downearnings results and L9 launch is expected toincrease both volume and profitsBuy（Maintain）Forecast & Valuation2021A2022E2023E2024ERevenue (RMB mn)270.10503.981168.772429.91Growth (YoY %)186%87%132%108%Net profit (RMB mn)-3.21-0.5029.8295.59Growth (YoY %)---221%EPS (RMB)-0.15-0.021.434.59P/E (X)--75.3123.50 Event: Li Auto announced 2Q22 results with revenue of RMB8.73bn (+73.3% YoY/-8.7% QoQ); gross margin of 21.5%(+2.6pct YoY/-1.1pct QoQ ); net loss of RMB618mn, decreasing by RMB607mn QoQ and RMB383mn YoY; net profit margin of-7.08%.Investment Thesis Negative industry factors and increasing R&D/sales expenses resulted in largerloss of 2Q22. 1) Orders & Gross Profit: In 2Q22, the company delivered Li ONE of28,687 units (+63.2% YoY/-9.6% QoQ) as the production and logistics transportationof supply chain and OEMs were affected by the recurring COVID-19 pandemic inShanghai and Yangtze River Delta. The 2Q22 average price per automobile wasRMB295,700 (+6.0% YoY/+0.7% QoQ) and the rise of revenue was better than that ofsales volume. Affected by the rising lithium prices, the company increased productionprice by RMB11,800 on April 1, 2022. However, as the previous orders were notdelivered in time, 2Q orders were still dominated by the orders before the price hike.The gross margin for automotive business was 21.18% (+2.5pct YoY/-1.2pct QoQ) andoverall gross margin dropped -1.1pct QoQ due to rising costs and reducing scale effect.2) Expense ratio: 2Q R&D/SG&A expenses were RMB1.53/1.33bn, corresponding toan expense ratio at 17.54%/15.17%, with a YoY growth +4.58/-1.04pct and QoQgrowth +3.17/+2.59pct. The large YoY and QoQ growth in R&D expense ratio camefrom the continued expansion of the company's R&D team and increasing new vehicledevelopment costs. The large QoQ growth in SG&A expense ratio came from the rapidexpansion of the company's channel network and increasing rent & staff salaries, whilethe YoY decline in SG&A expense ratio was due to increasing amortized expensesfollowed by increasing sales. Channels continue to expand; new model L9 and Li ONE after price hikes areexpected to lead to a higher average price per automobile in 3Q. As of 31 July2022, Li Auto has 259 retail centers nationwide, covering 118 cities; 311 after-salesrepair centers and authorized sheet spray centers, covering 226 cities. According to thecompany's guidelines, it will deliver about 27,000 ~ 29,000 automobiles in 3Q22(+7.5%~15.5% YoY), corresponding to revenues RMB8.96 ~ 9.56bn (+15.3%~22.9%YoY). 3Q22 average price per automobile may sharply rise to RMB330,000 due to thedelivery of Li ONE after price hike and new model L9. Earnings Forecast & Rating: Due to the company's full-year sales forecast cut, wereduce our2022/2023/2024 revenue forecastfromRMB57.6/129.8/221.5bn toRMB50.4/116.9/243.0bn, with a YoY growth +87%/+132%/+108%;