汽车月度销量跟踪及投资策略：7月车市“淡季不淡”，新能源车士气如虹

7月车市“淡季不淡”，新能源车士气如虹撰写日期：2022-08-22汽车月度销量跟踪及投资策略【2022.07】太平洋汽车团队 首席分析师：白 宇 执业证书编号：S1190518020004汽车联席首席：樊夏沛 执业证书编号：S1190522060001 联系人：付秉正证券研究报告 7月车市核心看点n 购置税减免+车企优惠并行，7月零售“淡季不淡”7月，国内乘用车零售181.8万辆，同比+21.0%，较6月增速（23.2%）基本持平。n 新能源订单放量加速，渗透率强势依旧7月，新能源乘用车零售48.6万辆，同比+118.7%，延续6月（+131.4%）高增长态势。政策、季节因素未改新能源市场强劲需求，渗透率（26.7%）强势依旧。n 7月初战告捷，静待下半年新能源销量超预期7月，PHEV/BEV销售12.4万辆/36.2万辆，同比分别+175.7%/+104.2%，纯电动销量创历史新高。n 自主品牌跑赢大市，市占率同环比持续双升7月，自主品牌乘用车销售107.8万辆，同比+49.7%；1-7月累计销量491.7万辆，同比+19.7%，增速跑赢汽车总销量。7月自主品牌市占率依然维持较高水平，达49.6%，同/环比分别+3.2pct/+4.9pct。n 比亚迪：再次刷新单月记录，DMi、EV双箭齐发7月，比亚迪交付新车162530辆，同/环比分别+183.1%/+21.5%，再次刷新单月销量纪录。其中，DM车型交付新车81223辆，EV车型交付新车80991辆。n 投资策略新能源汽车购置税免征政策延续，避免了明年涨价对消费需求的抑制，也将消弭税收杠杆突然撤去带来的年底抢装潮。在疫后复苏、政策支持的逻辑主线上，中期汽车销量和业绩依然有稳定的支撑，继续看好在新能源产业链有良好布局的主机厂和零部件公司，重点关注长城汽车、长安汽车、广汽集团和理想汽车等整车标的，零部件推荐松原股份、经纬恒润、科博达、银轮股份和明新旭腾。n 风险提示宏观经济承压导致市场需求萎缩；芯片短供改善不及预期；疫情反复对产业链扰动加剧。 n一、7月汽车销量回望购置税减免+车企优惠并行，7月零售“淡季不淡”····································································································································5新能源订单放量加速，渗透率强势依旧··························································································································································67月初战告捷，静待下半年新能源销量超预期···············································································································································7自主品牌跑赢大市，市占率同环比持续双升·················································································································································8n二、国内新势力车企销量及重点车型跟踪理想汽车：理想One连续三个月交付过万，L9放量在即···························································································································10小鹏汽车：轿车系列贡献显著，P7、G9构建双旗舰阵容·························································································································11蔚来汽车：经典车型贡献销量，累计交付居新势力榜首···························································································································13哪吒汽车：7月新势力销冠，势头正盛··························································································································································15零跑汽车：连续三个月创新高，站稳新势力第一阵营·······························································································································17特斯拉：交付周期缩短，静待触底反弹························································································································································19n三、国内主要上市车企销量及重点车型跟踪长城汽车：克服供应链困境，7月海外销量创新高·····································································································································22长安汽车：7月销量再破20万辆，新能源表现亮眼····································································································································24广汽集团：势头延续强劲，继续领跑新能源市场·····················································································································