2022年7月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：土地销售市场热度双降，行业债券信用利差收窄

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明2022 年 8 月 11 日远东研究·行业研究摘 要作者：曹晓婧邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn商品房量价：7 月份 30 大中城市商品房成交面积环比减少30.05%，同比减少 33.73%。百城新建住宅平均价格同比上涨0.52%，涨幅较上月回落 0.36 个百分点。房企土地购置：6 月份房企土地成交价款及土地购置面积同比分别减少 65.13%、52.81%，土地平均购置价格同比下跌26.10%。房企新土地项目投资明显放缓。政策：7 月份银保监会就“停贷”事件作出回应，中央政治局会议首次提出“保交楼”、再次强调支持刚性及改善性住房需求。全国多个城市出台房地产放松政策，主要包括放宽公积金贷款、放宽购房条件、提供购房补贴、缓解房企压力等。重 点 房 企 ： 7 月 份 百 强 房 企 销 售 操 盘 金 额 环 比 降 低28.6%，同比降低 39.7%；云南城投、蓝光发展、阳光城对外提供担保，担保余额占净资产比例较高；天誉置业触发所有境外债务交叉违约，提出清盘呈请；富力地产境外全资子公司 10只美元债豁免违约及展期获通过；华南城出售物业资产。债券发行与到期：7 月份房地产行业共发行债券 1011.69亿元，通过债市净融资-181.08 亿元。2020 年 9 月至 2022 年 7月国内房地产行业债券存量规模压降了 3870.49 亿元。信用事件与利差：7 月份有 1 只债券违约、15 只债券展期，无主体和债券的信用级别调整情况。7 月末兴业房地产行业债券信用利差（中位数）较上月末下降了 9.69BP。总结与展望：7 月份商品房销售市场复苏承压，土地市场持续低迷，债券发行市场回暖。行业债券信用利差有所收窄，但仍需防范部分高负债且下半年债务集中到期的中小规模房企风险。未来更多“保交楼”、支持刚性及改善性需求的政策急需落地，从供需两侧帮助市场恢复信心，促进房企销售回款以缓解部分流动性压力。相关研究报告：1.《2022 年 6 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房销售市场回暖，房企债券融资继续净流出》，2022.07.142. 《2022 年 5 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：房地产调控政策不断放松，行业信用暂时稳定》，2022.06.083. 《2022 年 4 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：房地产开发投资与销售双降，行业步入新常态》，2022.05.10土地销售市场热度双降，行业债券信用利差收窄——2022 年 7 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态请务必阅读正文后的免责声明Monthly Industry Observation of ChinaAug 11th, 2022SummaryIn terms of sales volume and prices of commercial housing, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large andmedium-sized cities declined by 30.05% month-on-month and declined by 33.73% year-on-year in July. The average priceof newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” increased by 0.52% year-on-year, and the increase was 0.36 percentagepoints lower than that of the previous month.In terms of real estate land purchase, the land transaction price and land purchase area of real estate enterprises decreasedby 65.13% and 52.81% year-on-year respectively, and the average land purchase price decreased by 26.10% year-on-yearin June. Investment in new land projects by real estate companies slowed markedly.In terms of policies, in July, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission responded to the "loan suspension"incident, the Politburo meeting proposed the "guarantee exchange building" for the first time and emphasized support forrigid and improved housing demand again. Many cities have moderately relaxed real estate control policies, includingeasing loans from the provident fund, relaxing purchase restrictions, providing housing subsidies, and easing pressure onhousing enterprises.In terms of key real estate companies, the sales amount of TOP100 real estate companies in July decreased by 28.6%month-on-month and decreased by 39.7% year-on-year. Yunnan Metropolitan Real Estate Development, LanguangDevelopment and Yango Group provided external guarantees, and they all have high guaranteed balances relative to theirnet assets; Skyfame Realty triggered the cross default of all its overseas debts and filed a liquidation petition; Theexemption and extension of 10 US dollar bonds of R&F Property's overseas wholly-owned subsidiaries were approved;China South City sold its property assets.In terms of bond issuance and maturit