房地产行业研究：更大力度政策宽松可期，地产板块有望继续修复

Equity Research·Industry Research·Real Estate Real Estate Industry Research 1 / 37 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] Real estate sector: further upside potential under more policy easing Outperform (Initiation) Investment Thesis Since 4Q21, real estate stocks rebounded significantly under expectation of policy loosening. From 2021/11/1 to 2022/7/28, the Real Estate Index (SW) saw a significant excess return (15.98%) compared to CSI300. Despite ongoing policy easing, real estate market is still under pressure. Considering the importance of real estate industry for China’s "stable growth" and "risk prevention", we expect more policy easing and further upgrade of real estate stock valuation. ◼ China’s real-estate market regulation turned from tight to loose since September 2021 and more room for policy easing unfolds in 2022. Since 2022, the guideline of policy easing in the real-estate market has been further confirmed, backed with combined financial and administrative policies. "City-based" regulation has seen a rapid expansion: regulatory easing extends from third- and fourth-tier cities to major second- and first-tier cities, further opening the room for policy relaxation. ◼ Ongoing policy easing notwithstanding, the real estate market is still under pressure. In 2022, 1) Pandemic resurgence affected offline house visiting and land supply; 2) Credit defaults of real estate companies hurt confidence for presold house delivery; 3) Falling house prices strengthened the wait-and-see attitude of buyers; 4) Increasing pressure on Chinese economy weakened people’s income expectations. In this case, the real estate market remains weak even with strong policy support. ◼ Strong demand for "stable growth" plus sufficient policy "toolbox" indicates greater real estate easing on the way. The real estate industry weighs significantly on economic performance, employment stability and fiscal balance. Since 2022, international environment becomes more complicated and impact of pandemic resurgence goes way beyond expectations, leading to deteriorating economic conditions and growing demand for "stable growth". In addition, increasing local government expenditures to fight the pandemic and declining income from land sales further aggravate local fiscal burden. The spread of credit risk in real estate market will not only affect market confidence, but also trigger wider financial risks. Thus, from the perspective of urgency and necessity, greater real-estate support is in urgent need. ◼ Outlook of real estate easing policy: policy "toolbox" is sufficient. Demand side: still plenty of room for mortgage rates to go down. Lower down-payments, broader identification standards for the first suite, more favorable Housing Provident Fund loans, looser restrictions on purchase and sale, and more subsidies for house purchases should stimulate housing demand. Supply side: more policy relaxation potential for the financing and land acquisition of real e