俄罗斯与北极的未来（英）

ISSUE NO. 336 OCTOBER 2021© 2021 Observer Research Foundation. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, copied, archived, retained or transmitted through print, speech or electronic media without prior written approval from ORF.Occasional PaperRussia and the Future of the ArcticAbstractRussia—the state with the longest Arctic coastline—is embarking on an ambitious plan to benefit from the vast natural resources of the region, while undertaking a military modernisation effort that had been stalled after the end of the Cold War. As one of the strongest players in the high north, Russia will be key in determining the future of the region, which is facing challenges brought about by global warming. This paper examines Russia’s aims and plans for the Arctic. It analyses opposing hypotheses on crucial issues and finds that while Russia wants to maintain the status quo, there are elements of both cooperation and contention in its current Arctic policy.Attribution: Nivedita Kapoor, “Russia and the Future of the Arctic,” ORF Occasional Paper No. 336, October 2021, Observer Research Foundation. Nivedita Kapoor3IntroductionIn early 2021, Russia began its two-year turn with the rotating chairmanship of the Arctic Council, taking over from Iceland.a The member states announced the agenda for the coming years: sustainable development, environment, and indigenous populations. Even as the Council continues its collaborative work, the Arctic region faces both enduring and new challenges brought about by climate change, new connectivity routes, the activities of non-Arctic powers, and security issues that are no longer merely theoretical.Russia has the longest Arctic coastline among all the region’s states. The region’s contribution to Russia’s GDP is pegged between 12 to 15 percent, and accounts for almost 20 percent of the country’s exports, including 80 percent of Russian gas and 17 percent of its oil.1,2 The changing security situation and the resultant impact on regional geopolitics also make the Arctic vital for Moscow. Russia, which sees the melting ice as an opportunity for its natural resource-dominated economy, is quite clearly the leader in building capacity and infrastructure in the Arctic.b As climate change worsens, however, it is becoming clear that the melting ice will be as much a challenge for Russia as it is an opportunity. a The Arctic Council, established in 1996 to promote cooperation among Arctic states, has as its members the US, Russia, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Canada and Denmark (Greenland). Apart from these, six indigenous groups are also participants in the forum.b The Arctic sea ice has been shrinking at an alarming rate due to the impact of climate change. NASA says its research reveals that the sea ice is reducing at a rate of 13 percent per decade. Without sea-ice to reflect sunlight back to the atmosphere, it is being absorbed and contributing to further warming. The Arctic is crucial to glob