日本经济增长和停滞的根源：基于50多年上市公司数据的分析（英）

DPRIETI Discussion Paper Series 21-E-094Sources of Growth and Stagnation in the Japanese Economy:An Analysis Based on Data for Listed Firms Spanning More Than Five DecadesFUKAO, KyojiRIETIKIM, YoungGakSenshu UniversityKWON, Hyeog UgRIETIThe Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industryhttps://www.rieti.go.jp/en/1 RIETI Discussion Paper Series 21-E-094 November 2021 Sources of Growth and Stagnation in the Japanese Economy: An Analysis Based on Data for Listed Firms Spanning More Than Five Decades* Kyoji FUKAO (Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University; RIETI; Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO) YoungGak KIM (School of Economics, Senshu University) HyeogUg KWON (College of Economics, Nihon University; RIETI) Abstract This study presents growth accounting and an analysis of productivity dynamics (as measured by labor productivity and total factor productivity, TFP) covering almost all listed firms in Japan spanning the 55-year period from 1960 to 2015 using the Development Bank of Japan’s “Corporate Financial Databank” on listed firms. The results show that during much of the period, the productivity growth of listed firms diverged substantially from macroeconomic productivity trends: during the 1980s, when the Japanese economy received worldwide acclaim, listed firms’ productivity growth declined substantially, while during the 1995–2010 period, when Japan’s economy registered only tepid growth, listed firms enjoyed steady productivity improvements. Moreover, from 2010 to 2015, when the economy overall accelerated under “Abenomics,” listed firms’ productivity growth remained sluggish. This divergence in productivity trends between the economy overall and listed firms likely is due to differences in productivity growth between listed firms and other firms – primarily small and medium-sized firms – linked to their size, such as differences in terms of their speed of internationalization, investment in tangible and intangible assets, increases in part-time employment, and restructuring. This finding suggests that understanding differences in productivity linked to firm size is crucial for understanding productivity dynamics within Japan’s economy, which has been characterized by a dual structure since the Meiji period. Meanwhile, our analysis of productivity dynamics shows that the contribution of the reallocation of resources from listed firms with low TFP to other listed firms to overall TFP growth among listed firms has been small, and that most of the overall TFP growth was due to TFP growth within firms (i.e., the within effect). The exception is the 2010–2015 period, when resource allocation in the nonmanufacturing sector made a substantial positive contribution to TFP growth. Keywords: labor productivity, TFP, growth accounting, productivity dynamics JEL classification: D24, O47 The RIETI Discussion Paper Series aims at widely disseminating research results in the form of professional papers, with the goal of stimu