COVID-19对全球生产网络的影响：来自日本跨国公司的证据（英文）

DPRIETI Discussion Paper Series 21-E-014The Impact of COVID-19 on Global Production Networks:Evidence from Japanese Multinational FirmsZHANG, HongyongRIETIThe Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industryhttps://www.rieti.go.jp/en/RIETI Discussion Paper Series 21-E-014 March 2021 The Impact of COVID-19 on Global Production Networks: Evidence from Japanese Multinational Firms* Hongyong ZHANG† Abstract Using aggregate-level data on Japanese multinational corporations (MNCs) in major host countries and regions, this paper investigates the impact of COVID-19 on global production and supply chains with a focus on East Asia. I use the numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths as measures of the impact of the pandemic. I find that the pandemic had substantial impacts on the performance (sales, employment, and investment) of Japanese MNCs and global supply chains (exports to Japan and exports to third countries) in Q1–Q3 2020. China recovered quickly in Q2 and grew in Q3, whilst the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the rest of the world had still not fully recovered in Q3 2020. Importantly, lockdown and containment policies in host countries had large negative impacts on the sales and employment of Japanese MNCs. In contrast, I did not find positive effects of economic support policies on firm performance. Interestingly, whilst the firm expectations and business plans of Japanese MNCs were negatively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, their business confidence increased with strong overall government policy responses in host countries in Q1 2020. Keywords: COVID-19; Production networks; Multinational corporations. JEL classification: F14, F23 The RIETI Discussion Papers Series aims at widely disseminating research results in the form of professional papers, with the goal of stimulating lively discussion. The views expressed in the papers are solely those of the author(s), and neither represent those of the organization(s) to which the author(s) belong(s) nor the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry. * This study is conducted as a part of the research at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). This paper was prepared for the project ‘ERIA Research on Covid-19’ at the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA). Financial support from ERIA is greatly appreciated. I thank Rashesh Shrestha for his valuable comments and suggestions. All remaining errors are mine. † Senior Fellow, RIETI. 1-3-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, 100-0013 Tokyo, Japan. zhang-hongyong@rieti.go.jp 1 1. Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has had substantial impacts on production networks in East Asia and the rest of the world. Supply chains have been disrupted and both supply and demand shocks have been transmitted through supply chains and propagated across borders. As Baldwin and Tomiura (2020) point out, COVID-19 is contagious economically as it is