新冠疫情危机中企业经济前景的不确定性（英文）

DPRIETI Discussion Paper Series 21-E-042Uncertainty of Firms' Economic Outlook During the COVID-19 CrisisMORIKAWA, MasayukiRIETIThe Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industryhttps://www.rieti.go.jp/en/ RIETI Discussion Paper Series 21-E-042 May 2021 Uncertainty of Firms’ Economic Outlook During the COVID-19 Crisis* Masayuki Morikawa (RIETI, Hitotsubashi University) Abstract This study documents firms’ subjective uncertainty during the COVID-19 crisis in Japan using data from an original firm survey and publicly available government statistics. The contributions of this study are (1) the measurement of firms’ uncertainty regarding their mid-term economic outlook as subjective confidence intervals, and (2) the comparison of firms’ subjective uncertainty during the COVID-19 crisis with that of the Global Financial Crisis by using readily available official statistics. The results indicate that firms’ subjective uncertainty increased substantially after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The elevation of subjective uncertainty has been far more significant compared with the period of the Global Financial Crisis. However, the economic outlook’s deterioration during the COVID-19 crisis has been smaller. The COVID-19 crisis is characterized as an unprecedented uncertainty shock. Keywords: Uncertainty, Probability distribution, Economic outlook, COVID-19 JEL Classification: D84, E32, E37 The RIETI Discussion Paper Series aims at widely disseminating research results in the form of professional papers, with the goal of stimulating lively discussion. The views expressed in the papers are solely those of the author(s), and neither represent those of the organization(s) to which the author(s) belong(s) nor the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry. * The Survey of Corporate Management and Economic Policy sample used in this study was selected from the Basic Survey of Japanese Business Structure and Activities conducted by the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI). I would like to thank the statistics department of METI for their assistance. This research is supported by the JSPS Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (18H00858, 20H00071, 21H00720). 1 Uncertainty of Firms’ Economic Outlook During the COVID-19 Crisis 1. Introduction This study documents firms’ subjective uncertainty during the COVID-19 crisis in Japan using unique data sets. The uncertainty’s negative impact on economic activities through the “wait-and-see” mechanism has been highlighted in the literature. Moreover, empirical evidence has been accumulated, particularly since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). 1 Accurate and timely measurement of uncertainty is essential in assessing the COVID-19’s impact on economic activity. Since economic agents’ subjective uncertainty is difficult to measure directly, many proxies of uncertainty have been developed and used in past empirical studies. The rep