中国消费电子产品行业-全球机器人真空吸尘器：全球供应链暂时中断

abcGlobal Research | 11 October 2021Powered byUBS Evidence LabYESCautious overseas outlook in 2022E due to global supply-chain disruptions We lower our global robot vacuum cleaner (RVC) companies' earnings forecasts in H221E-22E on possible volume growth slowdown due to global shipping constraints and semiconductor chip shortages. Roborock/Ecovacs had around 80%/50% overseas sales exposure in 2020; however, we think investors have largely priced in these headwinds, given recent sharp share price corrections, while overlooking Roborock's potential to catch up in the domestic market. Apart from the temporary disruption, we remain positive on the sector's long-term growth prospects and domestic vendors' share-consolidation potential in global markets. We also expect premiumisation to continue driving China's RVC market. China market: premiumisation could continue, led by industry leaders RVCs equipped with auto clean/dirt-disposal functions are currently the most popular models (30-40% more expensive than regular RVCs). We note several brands (Ecovacs, Roborock, Dreame, Midea, Narwal) have these products compared to just two brands in H121 and one in 2020. We therefore expect premiumisation and penetration to continue driving industry growth, although a growing number of participants may indicate intensified competition in the upcoming peak season. What the latest UBS Evidence Lab China consumer survey tells usUBS Evidence Lab's first China RVC survey (> Access Dataset) interviewed 3,004 consumers across tier-1-4 cities. Key takeaways are: (1) average budgets in tier-1-2 cities/high-income earners are Rmb2,382/Rmb2,628, suggesting 14%/23% ASP upside from industry's current average of around Rmb2,100; (2) XiaoMi is top for brand awareness, followed by Midea, Ecovacs, Haier and Roborock—the mismatch with retail share (Ecovacs is first) suggests consumer perceptions on RVCs are not set, potentially offering opportunities for brands with no strong presence (ie, Roborock) to catch up; (3) Roborock has higher mindshare among female consumers, who have higher RVC budgets (Rmb2,400) than men (Rmb2,287) and are in many cases the household decision makers. We think this could translate into better future sales for Roborock. Stock pick: downgrade Ecovacs to Neutral and maintain Buy on RoborockWe downgrade Ecovacs from Buy to Neutral and lower our price target from Rmb270 to Rmb165: we think the market has factored in its good execution as an industry leader, but overlook potential risk from wet-dry vacuum cleaner. Thus we cut earnings forecast in 2024E onwards to reflect its GM pressure and reduce mid-term ROIC assumption. We maintain a Buy rating on Roborock but lower our price target from Rmb1,600 to Rmb900: we think market concerns over near-term global shipping constraints may be overdone, while its potential in the domestic market could be overlooked.Figure 1: UBS-S valuation comparison—covered RVC companies Source : UBS-S estimates. Note