助力“健康中国 2030”—聚焦中国财产险公司短期健康险发展

abGlobal Research | 2 November 2020US Insurance3Q20: Week 2- "Hard" market continues to push share prices higher for commercial line insurersAnother week of solid results in P/C InsuranceShare price performance for property casualty insurers is roughly flat since the start of earnings season two weeks ago, but outperformed the S&P 500 (-5%) and XLF (-5%) as evidence of the "hard" commercial lines pricing environment became more apparent in results. Commercial lines pricing in most lines continued to accelerate and exceed loss trend, leading to underlying margin expansion; both CB and TRV commented that 100 basis points of margin expansion in the quarter was for rate in excess of trend. This is driving upward consensus EPS estimate revisions for many commercial lines insurer despite continued headwinds from lower investment yields.Insurance brokers generally reported better than expected organic revenue growth and margins, however, caution on 4Q20 outlook and improved sentiment surrounding commercial lines underwriters resulted in several of the brokers underperforming on results. Better pricing offset by lower NIIMgmt teams were bullish on the commercial pricing environment as insurers have reported on average 3.5 pts of improvement y/y to underlying commercial margins (x/ any Covid-19 losses reported in attritional ratios); that said, some firms such as WRB and AXS indicated a more cautious approach to recognizing rate over trend and lower frequency in loss picks. CB reported on rate increases of 15% for the overall P&C business, with Large Account and E&S casualty lines up >30%, while at HIG renewal pricing x/ WC was up 8.2%. Book yields continue to decline as insurers invest new money at lower yields, and we expect NII pressures to continue through 2021 for the group. Life insurance results mixed; Group Benefits top line pressureCOVID-19 mortality worsened q/q for UNM (though benefited LTC), but improved for PFG. Voluntary benefits claim activity picked back up, as expected, but group benefits sales have been unusually weak across the sector which, when combined with employment trends in the U.S. have begun to pressure premium income. One constant has been solid reductions in G&A essentially across the board. AMP has already resumed buybacks, PFG expects to resume in 4Q20/1Q21, and UNM remains on pause through YE’20. PFG expects more credit drift and/or losses in 2021 than in 2020 as broad Fed support YTD appears to be effectively delaying balance sheet impacts.We like AIG, IFC and RGA into results this weekFor AIG, trends in commercial lines underlying margin improvement so far this quarter is a positive read-thru and we could also see better than expected commercial lines premium growth. We also like IFC where we expect better than consensus earnings.For life insurer, we like RGA as we expect better visibility on COVID-19 mortality will overshadow 2H20 claim volatility and highlight RGA's attractive valuation.Figure 1: Earnings CalendarT