重磅：2020年美国总统选举预测（英文）

1 2020 United States Presidential Election: Forecasting Based on ABM Simulation November 1, 2020 Center for Complex Decision Analysis Fudan University, Shanghai, China At 12pm (Beijing time) on November 1, 2020 (two days before the presidential election in United States), a research team at the Center for Complex Decision Analysis (directed by Prof. Shiping Tang), of Fudan University, Shanghai, China, releases their latest computer simulation-based predictions for the "relative shares of votes" in six states in the upcoming 59th American presidential election that is scheduled on November 3, 2020. By “elative shares of votes” we mean the share of votes by one party’s candidate divided by the total share of votes obtained by the two major parties (i.e., the Democratic Party and the Republic Party). For these six states, our simulation has produced these forecasted results in early Sept. In fact, we have simulated three times: April, July, and then Sept. We have refrained from releasing our forecasting results to avoid affecting actual voting. Our forecasting is based on agent-based modeling (ABM), with zero reliance on opinion polls. We have been developing this method since early 2015. For the releases of our earlier forecasting efforts, which have also been fairly accurate, please see the links at the end of this report (Appendix-II). For 2020 U.S. election, our ABM-based forecasting primarily focuses on six states (due to the budget limit). It must be emphasized that our forecasting is a purely scientific exercise. The team has no intention of influencing actual elections in the U.S. by any means. Obviously, the general public is more interested in the overall outcome of the election. We therefore also extend our forecasting to predict the final electoral college votes by combining our methods with polls projection (Appendix-I). We appreciate the assistance "Intellisia Institute" provided in collecting part of the data. 2 Results of Our Forecasting State Candidate Predicted Result (relative vote share) Forecasting models (Group A) Forecasting models (Group B) Predicted Winner Michigan Trump&Pence 0.4546 (0.4409,0.4682) 0.4443 (0.4305,0.4582) Biden&Harris 0.5454 (0.5318, 0.5591) 0.5557 (0.5418,0.5695) ☆ Ohio Trump&Pence 0.5075 (0.4952, 0.5198) 0.5089 (0.4966, 0.5212) ☆ Biden&Harris 0.4925 (0.4802, 0.5048) 0.4911 (0.4788, 0.5034) Pennsylvania Trump&Pence 0.4796 (0.4666, 0.4926) 0.4756 (0.4625, 0.4887) Biden&Harris 0.5204 (0.5074, 0.5334) 0.5244 (0.5113, 0.5375) ☆ Indiana Trump&Pence 0.5165 (0.5044, 0.5285) 0.5364 (0.5248, 0.5480) ☆ Biden&Harris 0.4835 (0.4715, 0.4956) 0.4636 (0.4520, 0.4752) West Virginia Trump&Pence 0.6169 (0.6073, 0.6265) - ☆ Biden&Harris 0.3831 (0.3735, 0.3927) - Missouri Trump&Pence 0.5560 (0.5449, 0.5671) 0.5539 (0.5427, 0.5650) ☆ Biden&Harris 0.4440 (0.4329, 0.4551) 0.4461 (0.4350, 0.4573) Note: A key difference between group A model and group B model is that except for the shared variab