StrategicGears-埃及银行业的下一个增长阶段（英）

Strategic Gears | The Next Growth Phase for Egypt’s Banking Sector1The Next Growth Phase for EGYPT’S BANKING SECTORNovember 2025Strategic Gears | The Next Growth Phase for Egypt’s Banking Sector2CONTENTSThe Key Takeaways3Introduction 5Context 5Aim and Scope 7Banking sector consolidation: Overview8Trends in Egypt 9Analytical framework 11Market Drivers 13Macroeconomic conditions 13Domestic systemically important banks15Regulatory Drivers18Technological Drivers20Financial inclusion and digital adoption 20Fintech and digital banking 22Looking Ahead:25Future-proofing Egypt’s banking sector 25Outlook on Consolidation 25Case Studies27References28Authors29Strategic Gears | The Next Growth Phase for Egypt’s Banking Sector3StrategicDiagnosticMacroeconomic pass-through on balance sheet growth masks actual breadth of financial intermediation in the Egyptian market. Deposits in the banking system more than quadrupled between 2016 and September 2025, reaching EGP 9.2 trillion. This expansion has supported balance sheet resilience and record profits, with net earnings up nearly 90% in 2024. However, high interest rates and exchange-rate corrections mask actual broadening of private-sector lending.Systemic banks anchor sector performance but deepen concentration. Egypt’s five systemically important banks hold nearly two-thirds of sector assets and loans, reporting lower non-performing loans (1.4%) and stronger profitability growth than peers. Their scale provides stability and capacity to absorb shocks, but sector-wide indicators are increasingly defined by their balance sheets.Supervisory technologies are being introduced but adoption remains partial. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has been piloting SupTech and RegTech tools to improve risk detection and oversight. Uptake is still limited as banks face IT and resource hurdles, yet over time these systems could expose and reduce inefficiencies, further accelerating shifts.Rising capital and compliance requirements have redrawn the rules of participation. Law 194/2020 raised minimum capital tenfold and expanded supervisory powers, while new cybersecurity and risk-management rules have increased compliance costs. Larger banks are able to adapt, but smaller institutions face sharper trade-offs between recapitalization, merger, or market exit.The Key TakeawaysEgypt’s banking sector is undergoing gradual structural change shaped by market, regulatory, and technological forces, with consolidation featuring increasingly in policy and industry debates. Since the Financial Reform Program (2004–2012), the system has achieved notable gains in financial inclusion, asset quality, and profitability, while recent years have brought rapid balance sheet expansion, stronger capital positions, and rising digital adoption. This report studies Egypt’s developing banking sector with a focus on the changing competitive dynamics and rising prospects of consolidation. Below are the key takeaways.Strategic Gears | The Next