麦肯锡-下一代银行业务：美国中型银行的剧本（英）

September 2025Financial Services PracticeBanking on the next generation: A playbook for US midcap banksMidcap banks face challenges including an aging customer base and a heavy reliance on branches, but also opportunities to modernize, attract younger consumers, and build resilience. by Atanas Stoyanov, Darius Imregun, and Peter Noteboomwith Jeff BrownThe turmoil that hit the US banking industry in early 2023 and resulted in the collapse of several banks was a pivotal moment, particularly for midsize institutions. In the span of just four weeks in March 2023, banks beyond the country’s 25 largest experienced more than $220 billion in deposit outflows,1 as customers moved funds to larger institutions perceived as more stable. The crisis exposed a vulnerability: Some banks discovered they were susceptible to outflows in concentrated pockets of clients with larger deposit balances.Since then, a performance gap has emerged. Among midcap banks (with assets of $10 billion to $100 billion), those that rely more on retail deposits have done significantly better than peers reliant on commercial or wholesale funding (Exhibit 1). Retail deposits are typically more granular than other types of deposits, composed of funds from many individuals. This makes them more stable. Midcap banks with such granular, low-cost retail deposit bases didn’t just weather the 2023 crisis more effectively; they also outperformed in 2024. Institutions with above-median retail deposits as a share of total deposits delivered net interest margins that were 44 basis points higher, on average, than peers more reliant on commercial or wholesale deposits. The retail-focused banks also experienced asset growth that was more than twice as fast as that of their peers. If midcaps with greater dependence on wholesale or commercial funding had achieved the same performance as peers with more retail-focused deposit bases, they would 1 “Deposits, small domestically chartered commercial banks,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, April 29, 2025.Exhibit 1Web 2025MidCapBankResilienceExhibit <1> of 7Key fnancial metrics of US midcap banks in 2024, %11Results from 108 US-based midcap banks (assets of $10 billion–$100 billion).2Median level of retail deposits as share of total deposits for midcap banks was 42% in Q4 2024.Source: S&P Capital IQ, S&P Global Market Intelligence, accessed Aug 2025Midcap banks with more reliance on retail deposits have outperformed those with more reliance on commercial or wholesale funding.McKinsey & CompanyNet interest marginRetail deposits above median2Retail deposits below median2Cost of fundsYear-to-year deposit growthYear-to-year asset growth3.463.022.482.676.014.425.242.222Banking on the next generation: A playbook for US midcap bankshave generated nearly $10 billion in additional net interest income in 2024, representing an increase of nearly 20 percent.Why are retail deposits so resilient? One factor is cust