美联储-货币政策与银行融资成本：政策利率向美国银行融资成本传导的模式和可预测性（英）

Finance and Economics Discussion SeriesFederal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online)Monetary Policy and Bank Funding Costs: Patterns andPredictability in the Transmission of the Policy Rate to U.S.Banks’ Funding CostsDaniel A. Dias; Sophia C. Scott2025-083Please cite this paper as:Dias, Daniel A., and Sophia C. Scott (2025). “Monetary Policy and Bank Funding Costs:Patterns and Predictability in the Transmission of the Policy Rate to U.S. Banks’ FundingCosts,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-083. Washington: Board of Gover-nors of the Federal Reserve System, https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.083.NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers.Monetary Policy and Bank Funding Costs: Patterns andPredictability in the Transmission of the Policy Rate toU.S. Banks’ Funding Costs∗Daniel A. Dias†Sophia C. Scott‡August 7, 2025AbstractThis paper shows that U.S. commercial banks’ funding betas rise predictably with thelength, magnitude, and direction of each monetary policy cycle: longer cycles and thosewith larger changes in the policy rate yield stronger pass-through in both tighteningand loosening cycles, with modest asymmetry favoring slightly greater transmissionduring loosening cycles. Nondeposit liabilities consistently adjust more than deposits.Crucially, at the aggregate banking-system level and across banks grouped by size,this cycle-dependent relationship has remained remarkably stable over three decades,highlighting the durability and predictability of interest-rate transmission to banks’funding costs.JEL Codes: C22, E44, G21Keywords: Bank funding betas; Deposit vs. nondeposit funding costs; Monetary policycycles; Interest-rate transmission∗We would like to thank without implicating William Bassett, Jose Berrospide, and Cindy Vojtech forcomments and suggestions that helped improve the paper. The views in this paper are solely the responsibilityof the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Board of Governors of the FederalReserve System or of any other person associated with the Federal Reserve System. All errors are our own.†Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and CEMAPRE. Email: daniel.dias@frb.gov.‡Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Email: sophia.c.scott@frb.gov.1IntroductionBanks fund their assets through a combination of equity and debt, with debt funding splitinto deposits and nondeposit liabilities.1 As banks compete with other financial institutionsfor these funding sources,