IMF-促进匈牙利能源安全：基于模型的分析（英）

Promoting Energy Security in Hungary: A Model-based Analysis Moheb Malak, Augustus Panton, Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, and Atticus Weller SIP/2025/121IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 25, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/251. 2025 SEP © 2025 International Monetary Fund SIP/2025/121 IMF Selected Issues Paper European Department Promoting Energy Security in Hungary: A Model-based Analysis Prepared by Moheb Malak, Augustus Panton, Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, and Atticus Weller Authorized for distribution by Anke Weber September 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 25, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/251 ABSTRACT: This paper evaluates Hungary’s energy security vulnerabilities and policy options in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the EU’s planned phaseout of Russian energy imports by 2027. Leveraging the IMF-ENV global computable general equilibrium model, the analysis simulates the energy security impacts of coordinated EU-wide instruments—such as carbon pricing and electricity market integration—alongside complementary national reforms, including fossil fuel subsidy removal, tighter energy efficiency standards, and accelerated renewables permitting. Results show that, taken together, these policies can significantly reduce Hungary’s import concentration, enhance supply diversification, and lower energy expenditure risks, thereby strengthening the country’s resilience to future external energy shocks. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Malak, Moheb, Augustus Panton, Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, and Atticus Weller. 2025. “Promoting Energy Security in Hungary: A Model-Based Analysis." IMF Selected Issues Paper (SIP/2025/121). Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund. JEL Classification Numbers: Q43, Q48, C68, F15 Keywords: Energy security; economic resilience; green transition; EU electricity integration Author’s E-Mail Address: mmalak@imf.org; apanton@imf.org; hrojas-romagosa@imf.org; aweller@imf.org SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Promoting Energy Security in Hungary: A Model-Based Analysis Prepared by Moheb Malak, Augustus Panton, Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, and Atticus Weller1 1 The author(s) would like to thank Anke Weber and Florence Jaumotte for their helpful review comments, Estefania Cohn Bech for excellent research assistance, and Ninfa Gonzales for technical support. The authors would also like to thank the Hungarian authorities for helpful comments and feedback. HUNGARY SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByEuropean Department Prepared By Moheb Malak, Augustus Panton, Atticus Weller (All EUR), and Hugo Rojas-Romagosa (RES) PROMOTING ENERGY SECU