2025年欧洲人工智能与生产力报告

* Corresponding author.** We thank Simon Bunel, Era Dabla-Norris, Romain Duval and David Koll for excellent comments. Mahika Gandhi provided excellent research assistance. © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/67IMF Working Paper European DepartmentArtificial Intelligence and Productivity in Europe Prepared by Florian Misch*, Ben Park, Carlo Pizzinelli and Galen Sher** Authorized for distribution by Stephan Danninger and Kristina Kostial Month 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: The discussion on Artificial Intelligence (AI) often centers around its impact on productivity, but macroeconomic evidence for Europe remains scarce. Using the Acemoglu (2024) approach we simulate the medium-term impact of AI adoption on total factor productivity for 31 European countries. We compile many scenarios by pooling evidence on which tasks will be automatable in the near term, using reduced-form regressions to predict AI adoption across Europe, and considering relevant regulation that restricts AI use heterogeneously across tasks, occupations and sectors. We find that the medium-term productivity gains for Europe as a whole are likely to be modest, at around 1 percent cumulatively over five years. While economically still moderate, these gains are still larger than estimates by Acemoglu (2024) for the US. They vary widely across scenarios and countries and are substantially larger in countries with higher incomes. Furthermore, we show that national and EU regulations around occupation-level requirements, AI safety, and data privacy combined could reduce Europe’s productivity gains by over 30 percent if AI exposure were 50 percent lower in tasks, occupations and sectors affected by regulation. RECOMMENDED CITATION: [Misch, F., Park, B., Pizzinelli, C. and Sher, G. (2024). Artificial Intelligence and Productivity in Europe. IMF Working Paper WP/25/67. JEL Classification Numbers: E24, J24, O30, O47 Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Productivity; Technology; Regulation Author’s E-Mail Address: FMisch@imf.org; HPark2@imf.org; CPizzinelli@imf.org; GSher@imf.org ©International Monetary Fund. Not for RedistributionWORKING PAPERS Artificial Intelligence and Productivity in Europe Prepared by Florian Misch1, Ben Park, Carlo Pizzinelli and Galen Sher2 1 Corresponding author. 2 Mahika Gandhi provided excellent research assistance. ©International Monetary Fund. Not for RedistributionIMF WORKING PAPERS Artificial Intelligence and Productivity in Europe INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2 Contents 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 32. Stylized Facts ..............................