IMF-双边服务贸易：来自新数据库的见解（英）

IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 AUG Bilateral Trade in Services: Insights from A New Database Nan Li, Sergii Meleshchuk, Qiuyan Yin, Dennis Zhao, and Robert Zymek WP/25/163 * We thank Ingo Borchert, Barbara D’Andrea, Kristy Howell, Olga Pindyuk, Patrick Quill, Stela Rubínová, and Yoto Yotov for sharingtheir expertise in collecting and compiling data on services trade, and Petia Topalova, Richard Baldwin, Heiwai Tang and seminarparticipants at the IMF and the University of Tokyo for helpful comments and suggestions. This work is supported by the Macroeconomic Policy in Low-Income Countries program of the U.K.’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO)and the Macroeconomic Research on Climate Change and Emerging Risks in Asia program of the Ministry of Economy and Financeof the Government of Korea. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, itsExecutive Board, or IMF management, nor the views of the U.K. FCDO or Korea’s Ministry of Economy and Finance.© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/163IMF Working Paper Research Department Bilateral Trade in Services: Insights from A New Database* Prepared by Nan Li, Sergii Meleshchuk, Qiuyan Yin, Dennis Zhao, and Robert Zymek Authorized for distribution by Petia Topalova August 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper introduces the Bilateral Trade in Services (BiTS) database. It draws on a range of sources to provide the broadest-possible, consistent coverage of bilateral services trade for the period 1985-2023. The database covers bilateral trade across 12 major services categories, 9 of which are further disaggregated into 26 distinct subcategories, all harmonized under a consistent BPM6 classification standard. While historical data is only available for some advanced economies and emerging markets, the bilateral flows contained in BiTS capture most of global services trade from 2000 onwards. We illustrate the uses of this data through two research applications. The first shows that "gravity forces" have become less powerful in explaining services trade patterns over time, due to a shift in the composition of trade towards less distance-sensitive services. The second documents that overall services trade remains resilient to growing geopolitical fissures, but that modern services appear more sensitive to geopolitical alignment than traditional services. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Cui, George, Kailin Gao. 2025.