美联储-流行病和战争通货膨胀：国际经验的教训（英）

Finance and Economics Discussion SeriesFederal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online)Pandemic and War Inflation: Lessons from the InternationalExperienceAnna Lipi´nska, Enrique Mart´ınez Garc´ıa, Felipe Schwartzman2025-071Please cite this paper as:Lipi´nska, Anna, Enrique Mart´ınez Garc´ıa, and Felipe Schwartzman (2025).“Pandemicand War Inflation: Lessons from the International Experience,” Finance and EconomicsDiscussion Series 2025-071. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.071.NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers.Page 1 of 37 The analysis in this paper was presented to the Federal Open Market Committee as background for its discussion of the Federal Reserve’s 2025 review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communications. Abstract: This paper examines the drivers of the 2020–23 inflation surge, with an emphasis on the similarities and differences across countries, as well as the role that monetary policy frameworks might have played in shaping central banks’ responses. The inflation surge in the U.S. and abroad was set in motion by two global events: the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Pandemic-related supply disruptions, a rotation of consumer spending toward goods, and commodity price increases exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine resulted in unusually large relative price increases, which required time to be absorbed. A simple Phillips curve framework suggests that the inflation surge was mainly driven by “cost push” factors, such as supply shortages and relative price shifts. Tight labor markets contributed to the persistence of above-target inflation. Despite differences in mandates of the monetary policy frameworks, central banks around the world responded similarly to recent global events. JEL codes: E31, E52, E58, F33, F40. Keywords: International comparison, inflation, global shortages, aggregate demand, aggregate supply, commodity prices, Phillips curve, inflation expectations, monetary policy. Note: Authors’ affiliations are Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Lipińska), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (Martínez), and Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (Schwartzman), respectively.The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of anyone else affiliated with the Federal Reserve System. We thank Shaghil Ahmed, Brian Doyle, Andrew Figura, Etienne Gagnon, Jasper Hoek, Michael Kiley, Sylv