CEPR-加密货币、代币化和支付的未来（英）

Crypto, tokenisation, and the future of paymentsStephen G. Cecchetti and Kermit L. Schoenholtz1Brandeis University, European Systemic Risk Board and CEPR; NYU Stern School of Business“November 4, 2024, was America’s Hard Fork on digital assets. Since taking office, President Trump has righted the wrongs of his predecessor by fashioning the United States into a crypto superpower.” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, 30 July 2025.“I’ve always been deeply opposed to crypto, bitcoin, etc. The only true use case for it is criminals, drug traffickers … money laundering, tax avoidance. If I was the government, I’d close it down.” JPMorganChase CEO Jamie Dimon, 6 December 2023 (cited in Cox 2023).1 INTRODUCTION“Satoshi Nakamoto” launched Bitcoin on 3 January 2009. Based on innovative application of cryptography and new distributed ledger technology, the idea was to develop a new form of money that would replace government fiat currency as a means of payment. Nakamoto’s innovation spawned an entire industry. By some estimates, there are over 20,000 cryptoassets – instruments whose ownership is recorded on a ledger based on some form of cryptography (FCA 2023). At this writing, these have a cumulative value of about $4 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for roughly 60% of the total.2 While it functions as a store of value, outside of the crypto world Bitcoin is still neither a common means of exchange nor a popular unit of account.3 And the entire crypto system is but a dim mirror of the traditional monetary system, with far less investor and consumer protection, little transparency, and limited compliance with rules to reduce criminal use. According to one critic, “crypto is basically a giant grift” (Krugman 2025).Importantly, the traditional financial system already has been ‘digital’ for decades. Most wholesale and retail transactions occur electronically within seconds, sometimes even across borders. For people in much of the advanced world, it is straightforward to go for weeks, if not months, without touching paper money. 1 A portion of this Policy Insight is a contribution to a forthcoming CEPR report, Frontiers of Digital Assets, Currencies, and Payments, edited by Dirk Niepelt. We thank Richard Berner, Rhys Bidder, Yvan Dubravica, Jon Frost, Adam Głogowski, John Lipsky, Richard Portes, David Wessel, and Lawrence J. White for helpful comments and discussions.2 Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/3 A 2024 survey by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (2025) reports that 2% of adults used crypto to make a payment and 1% used it to send funds to friends or family. August 2025CEPR POLICY INSIGHT No. 146CEPR POLICY INSIGHT No. 1462August 2025To remain competitive, traditional financial intermediaries are not standing still. Since the time of Bitcoin’s introduction, virtually every type of traditional financial service has become cheaper, faster, and more accessible, both within and across borders. Banks and credit unions are responding quickly