美联储-评估最大就业率（英）

Finance and Economics Discussion SeriesFederal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online)Assessing Maximum EmploymentChristopher Foote, Shigeru Fujita, Amanda Michaud, Joshua Montes2025-067Please cite this paper as:Foote,Christopher,Shigeru Fujita,Amanda Michaud,and Joshua Montes (2025).“AssessingMaximumEmployment,”FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries2025-067.Washington:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.067.NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. Page 1 of 27 The analysis in this paper was presented to the Federal Open Market Committee as background for its discussion of the Federal Reserve’s 2025 review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communications. Abstract: We suggest a core set of indicators for evaluating the position of the labor market relative to maximum employment. The unemployment rate remains the key indicator of the cyclical position of the labor market, as it is time-tested, is highly correlated with other indicators, and has practical measurement advantages. But other indicators can provide complementary evidence to get a fuller picture of the labor market. A joint analysis of job vacancies and unemployment in a Beveridge curve diagram is helpful when structural shocks affect the labor market and when the labor market is very tight, while the employment-to-population ratio is useful late in expansions, when increases in employment tend to arise from higher labor force participation. Additional indicators—including wage growth and worker flows—can complement the core indicators we discuss. We draw on lessons from the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic to evaluate the effectiveness of various indicators. JEL Classification: E24, E32, J23. Keywords: Maximum employment, unemployment, job vacancies, labor force participation, wages, business cycle. Note: Author’s affiliations are Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (Foote), Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (Fujita), Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (Michaud), and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Montes), respectively. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of anyone else affiliated with the Federal Reserve System. Reviewers were Stephanie Aaronson, Daniel Sullivan, and Giorgio Topa. The authors benefited from additional comments from Bruce Fallick, Andrew Figura, Sylvain Leduc, Anna Paulson, Trevor Reeve, Adam Shapiro, Stacey Tevlin, Ivan Vidangos,