StrategicGears-从愿景到规模：沙特出口处于经济多样化的中心（英）

SAUDI EXPORTSAUGUST 2025TO SCALEFROM VISIONDIVERSIFICATIONOF ECONOMICAT THE CENTERPAGE | 2The Key Takeaways Introduction Context Aim and scope Framework and methodology Framework Methodology Saudi exports: Current-state assessment Product diversification and market reach The potential of non-oil exports Core competitive products: Small basket, outsized impact Scalable products: High competitiveness, low volume Near-competitive products: A quick-win portfolio Looking Ahead: Four strategic pathways to realize export potential345678911131416202327CONTENTSPAGE | 3Saudi Arabia’s economy is undergoing a historic shift. GDP reached $1.09 trillion in 2024, with oil’s share drop-ping to 22%, from almost 50% in 2011, growth diversifying to services, trade, manufacturing, and real estate, and non-oil exports tripling compared to their 2015 level. For a country already producing competitively in sectors like plastics, chemicals, and aluminum, even small gains in global market share could yield billions in additional revenue and thousands of jobs. This report advances a data-driven pathway for scaling that potential by iden-tifying 294 high-potential products and classifying them into three performance-based typologies. Here are the key takeaways:THE KEY TAKEAWAYSThe Kingdom’s non-oil exports, currently at $58 bil-lion, carry an untapped potential that could bring to-tal non-oil exports to over $100 billion before 2030 with targeted policy interventions.A few sectors dominate both current earnings and future potential. Plastics and organic chemicals consistently rank at the top for Saudi, accounting for the majority (59%) of its unrealized $43 billion non-oil export value.Core-competitive products, those in which the King-dom enjoys a competitive edge and high commer-cial values, offer the largest opportunity. Although they already generate 80% of total non-oil export revenues, they remain $29.4 billion below poten-tial. Strategic reactivation of peaked and declining products in this group could raise total exports to $76 billion by 2029.Near-competitive products, representing Saudi’s low-cost, high-return frontier, could go from yielding $1.57 billion in export values annually to an additional $1.3 billion in key sectors like plastics, paper, iron and steel, and salts. These products, with specific improvements in efficiency and market targeting, can be pushed over the competitive threshold.Scalable products, those in which the Kingdom has a competitive edge but a relatively low commercial val-ue, are numerous and economically underleveraged compared to their potential. Comprising 130 products across 40 sectors, they average just $1.67 billion an-nually in exports. Yet with tailored interventions, their export value could reach $2.8 billion by 2029.A handful of products drive most of the untapped potential, where only 14 core-competitive products account for more than two-thirds of the total $43 billion unrealized potential, suggesti