美联储-通货膨胀动态对货币政策策略的影响（英）

Finance and Economics Discussion SeriesFederal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online)Implications of Inflation Dynamics for Monetary Policy StrategiesHess Chung, Callum Jones, Antoine Lepetit, Fernando M. Martin2025-072Please cite this paper as:Chung, Hess, Callum Jones, Antoine Lepetit, and Fernando M. Martin (2025). “Implica-tions of Inflation Dynamics for Monetary Policy Strategies,” Finance and Economics Dis-cussion Series 2025-072. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.072.NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. Page 1 of 43 The analysis in this paper was presented to the Federal Open Market Committee as background for its discussion of the Federal Reserve’s 2025 review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communications. Abstract: This paper considers robust monetary policy strategies both in situations of low demand and low inflation and when economic developments pose a tradeoff between inflation and output stabilization. We proceed in two parts. First, our quantitative analysis suggests that asymmetric average inflation targeting can provide modest benefits over other inflation-targeting strategies when the risks associated with the effective lower bound remain significant. Second, motivated by the recent experience of persistent supply shocks and rapid increases in inflation, we describe the main qualitative features of optimal policy in circumstances when the objectives of stabilizing inflation and economic activity conflict. We find that monetary policy may allow inflation to depart from the target in response to certain supply shocks or in cases when sectoral dynamics are relevant, but that it should be ready to respond forcefully and expeditiously to large inflationary shocks or if inflation expectations are at risk of becoming unanchored. JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58. Keywords: Alternative monetary policy strategies, monetary policy communication, effective lower bound, supply shocks, sectoral dynamics, inflation surges. Note: Authors’ affiliations are Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Chung, Jones and Lepetit), and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Martin). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of anyone else affiliated with the Federal Reserve System. The authors benefited from the comments and suggestions of James Clouse, Marco Del Negro, Joshua Gallin, Benjamin Johannsen, Michae