美联储-2019年以来美联储工作人员通胀预测错误回顾（英）

Finance and Economics Discussion SeriesFederal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online)Retrospective on the Federal Reserve Board Staff’s InflationForecast Errors since 2019Ekaterina Peneva, Jeremy Rudd, Daniel Villar2025-069Please cite this paper as:Peneva, Ekaterina, Jeremy Rudd, and Daniel Villar (2025). “Retrospective on the FederalReserve Board Staff’s Inflation Forecast Errors since 2019,” Finance and Economics Dis-cussion Series 2025-069. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.069.NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers.Page 1 of 30 Retrospective on the Federal Reserve Board Staff’s Inflation Forecast Errors since 2019 Ekaterina Peneva, Jeremy Rudd, Daniel Villar The analysis in this paper was presented to the Federal Open Market Committee as background for its discussion of the Federal Reserve’s 2025 review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communications. Abstract: This paper examines the Board staff’s inflation forecast misses over the years following the COVID-19 outbreak, focusing on a timeline of what staff members knew when and lessons learned along the way. The staff significantly underestimated both the size and persistence of the inflationary surge that followed the reopening of the U.S. economy. As a result, staff members made various changes to their forecasting procedures, including using new types of data to inform their assessment of supply–demand imbalances in product and labor markets and to guide their judgmental forecast. Throughout, an important difficulty was the lack of similar historical episodes upon which to base a quantitative analysis. Over time, the innovations helped improve the staff’s ability to understand and forecast inflation during this period. However, considerable uncertainty remains about the quantitative contributions of the various drivers of the pandemic-period inflation as well as the applicability of the lessons from this episode for forecasting. JEL Classification: E31, E37. Keywords: Inflation forecasting, inflation dynamics, Phillips curve, COVID-19 pandemic. Note: The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or the Federal Open Market Committee. The authors are staff members of the Division of Research and Statistics at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; they prepared this paper drawing on forecast doc