Barclays_The_Emerging_Markets_Quarterly_Eyes_wide_open

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report.Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 207.The Emerging Markets QuarterlyEyes wide openEM’s exposure to US tariffs, geopolitics and softer globalgrowth is, in our view, offset by the commodity price boost forexporters and a renewed interest in the asset class as a wayto diversify out of the US. We expect the outlook for EM localand credit to remain robust and carry to perform.EM Economic & Strategy OutlookEyes wide open. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3EM’s exposure to US tariffs, geopolitics and softer global growth is, in our view, offset by thecommodity price boost for exporters and a renewed interest in the asset class as a way todiversify out of the US. We expect the outlook for EM local and credit to remain robust and carryto perform.EM Heat MapsA comparative overview of EM country metrics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20Emerging AsiaAll aboard the rollercoaster. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27Our base case remains for more monetary policy easing from all the major central banks inEmerging Asia over our forecast horizon – but with a more cautious tone, less aggressive paceand greater willingness to wait and see.FICC ResearchEM Strategy25 June 2025SIGNATUREEconomicsChristian Keller+44 (0) 20 7773 2031christian.keller@barclays.comBarclays, UKGabriel Casillas+ 1 212 526 7814gabriel.casillas@barclays.comBCI, USErcan Erguzel+44 (0) 20 3555 2564ercan.erguzel@barclays.comBarclays, UKBrian Tan+65 6308 5798brian.tan@barclays.comBarclays Bank, SingaporeCredit StrategyAndreas Kolbe+44 (0) 20 3134 3134andreas.kolbe@barclays.comBarclays, UKAvanti Save, CFA+65 6308 3116avanti.save@barclays.comBarclays Bank, SingaporeFX & EM Macro StrategyAndrea Kiguel+1 212 526 8954andrea.kiguel@barclays.comBCI, USMitul Kotecha+ 65 6308 5439mitul.kotecha@barclays.comBarclays Bank, SingaporeCompleted: 25-Jun-25, 00:42 GMT Released: 25-Jun-25, 04:00 GMTRestricted - ExternalEM Asia Trade Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44Emerging Europe, Middle East and AfricaOscillating between hope and despair. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92Expectations for the resolution of geopolitical conflicts have not been fruitful so far. The EEMEAregion is mired in new (geo)political risks, limiting scope for maneuvres on the policy front.EEMEA Trade Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .