IEF-2025年石油市场6月报比较分析（英）

June 2025Summary and Oil Market ContextDemandOPEC projects global oil demand to rise by 1.3 mb/d y/y in both 2025 and 2026. Stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of 2025, driven by robust performance in India, China, and Brazil, has lifted the global GDP growth forecast to 2.9% for the year. Easing trade tensions, particularly through agreements involving the US and key partners, are expected to reduce uncertainty and support oil consumption in the second half of 2025.The EIA projects global liquid fuels consumption to increase by 0.8 mb/d in 2025 and 1.1 mb/d in 2026 y/y, with growth concentrated in non-OECD countries. Non-OECD demand is expected to rise by 0.9 mb/d in 2025 and 1.0 mb/d in 2026 y/y, while OECD consumption remains broadly stable over the forecast period.The IEA forecasts global oil demand to rise by approximately 0.7 mb/d in 2025 y/y, slightly below last month’s estimate due to weaker-than-expected second-quarter deliveries in the United States and China. In 2026, demand growth is also expected to remain around 0.7 mb/d y/y.A clear divergence persists across agencies, with forecast gaps reaching up to 0.6 mb/d for both 2025 and 2026.SupplyOPEC projects non-DoC liquids supply and DoC NGLs to grow by approximately 0.9 mb/d year-on-year in 2025, reaching an average of 62.4 mb/d in 2025, led by the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. The 2026 forecast reflects a slight downward revision, with supply expected to increase by 0.9 mb/d to an average of 63.3 mb/d. Angola is anticipated to record the most decline, while the same four countries remain the key drivers of production growth.The EIA maintains its 2025 growth forecast for non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs at approximately 1.3 mb/d, reaching a total of 77.3 mb/d—unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2026, the EIA has revised its growth forecast downward to 0.7 mb/d, bringing the total to 78.1 mb/d. It also projects non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d in 2026, y/y.The IEA forecasts non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs to increase by 1.5 mb/d in 2025 and 1.1 mb/d in 2026, year-on-year. For non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs, the IEA projects growth of approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 1.0 mb/d in 2026.2Summary of 2024-2026 Balances3•OPEC maintains its projection of a 1.3 mb/d year-on-year increase in global oil demand for both 2025 and 2026.•The EIA projects year-on-year growth in non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs of 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d y/y in 2026.•The IEA forecasts global demand growth of 0.7 mb/d y/y/ in both 2025 and 2026. 20242024 Y/Y1Q252Q253Q254Q2520252025 Y/Y1Q262Q263Q264Q2620262026 Y/YIEA103.00.9102.4103.6104.8104.3103.80.7103.1104.3105.5105.1104.50.7OPEC103.81.5104.4104.2105.5106.4105.11.3105.7105.4107.0107.5106.41.3EIA102.70.9102.1103.1104.4104.4103.50.8103.3104.6105.3105.1104.61.1IEA45.70.045.145.546.045.645.6-0.144.845.145.945.545.3-0.2OPEC45.70.045.345.546.346.145.80.245.545.546.546.245.90.1EIA45.70.045.345.04