英文【世界银行】约束下的产业政策

Policy Research Working Paper11136Industrial Policy under ConstraintsEvidence from Pakistan’s Export Subsidy SchemesStefania LovoGonzalo J. VarelaEconomic Policy Global Department June 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11136This paper investigates the impact of an export promotion policy consisting of ad-valorem subsidies for a set of tar-geted products, on the performance of Pakistani exports in the textile sector. The findings show that the policy had a small overall impact on exports, while it induced substantial reallocation of exports across products. The policy induced an increase in exports of traditional products, mostly gar-ments, which were eligible for the highest rebate rates, at the expense of non-eligible or lower-rated products. The paper presents suggestive evidence indicating that the observed effects are partially attributed to shifts in the composition of exporters, through exits and entries alongside capacity constraints. Finally, the evidence shows that the scheme induced strategic misreporting at the border, which con-tributed marginally to the overall effects.This paper is a product of the Economic Policy Global Department. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at gvarela@worldbank.org. Industrial Policy under Constraints: Evidence fromPakistan’s Export Subsidy SchemesStefania Lovo∗Gonzalo Varela†Keywords: Export promotion, export subsidies, industrial policy, PakistanJEL codes: F13, F14, F63, O2∗University of Reading. Email: s.lovo@reading.ac.uk†World Bank1IntroductionOver the past decades, industrial policy has shifted from inward-looking and protec-tionist to outward-oriented and focused on promoting exports and export sophistication(Juh´asz et al., 2023). The presence of positive externalities, such as learning from ex-porting, has offered theoretical justification for deviating from policy neutrality (Harrisonand Rodr´ıguez-Clare, 2010). Yet the impac