世界铂金投资协会-2025年第一季度白金季度（英）

© 2025 World Platinum Investment Council – WPIC®. All rights reserved.Page 1 of 28PLATINUM QUARTERLYQ1 2025FOREWORDThis edition of Platinum Quarterly presents platinum supply and demand developments for the first quarter of 2025 and an updated forecast for full year 2025. It also provides WPIC’s views on relevant issues and trends for investors considering exposure to platinum as an investment asset, plus an update on how we continue to meet investors’ needs through our product partnerships. The Platinum Quarterly data and commentary (starting on page 5) are prepared independently for WPIC by Metals Focus.Platinum is expected to remain in its third consecutive year of market deficit in 2025f. A significant focus of the first quarter of 2025 was the potential for evolving US trade policies, tariffs in particular, to not only directly disrupt the flow of PGMs into the US but also indirectly impact PGMs through softening global economic activity. While recognising the heightened forecast risks related to tariffs and ongoing trade discussions, the aggregate impact on platinum markets in this update to our 2025 outlook is relatively minimal, and is reflected through moderated global automotive production and jewellery imports into the US, offset by the flow of metal into NYMEX exchange stocks which is captured within investment demand. Notably, the forecast platinum market deficit of 966 koz in 2025 represents a significant 12% of projected demand, and thus it is unlikely that deficits would substantially erode this even if a sharp escalation in trade-related economic headwinds arises. Platinum market enters its third year of substantial deficits• The platinum market is expected to record a deficit of 966 koz this year, which follows a 992 koz deficit in 2024. The forecast platinum market deficit for 2025 has been increased from the 848 koz reported in the March 2025 Platinum Quarterly primarily due to upward revisions in global platinum demand. • Supply risks remain a prominent theme in 2025. In Q1 2025, mining supply declined by -13% year-on-year to record its lowest output since Q2 2020 which was in the height of COVID lockdowns. While mining should benefit from improved processing capacity availability over the rest of the year, refined output is still expected to be 6% lower in 2025, which in terms of total supply is partially offset by a 3% year-on-year rise in recycling in 2025. Nonetheless, a -4% year-on-year reduction in total platinum supply in 2025 perpetuates the ongoing structural erosion of platinum supply (-1.2% CAGR since 2015). • Total platinum demand is expected to decline by -4% year-on-year in 2025. While risks to international trade have drawn significant focus in the first quarter, lower demand in 2025 is largely due to a cyclical trough in glass demand where capacity additions have slowed in China. Sectors such as automotive, jewellery and investment are arguably more sensitive to short-term shifts in trade policies. However, l