兰德-管理人工智能的经济未来-全球竞争时代的战略自动化政策（英）

TOBIAS SYTSMAManaging AI's Economic FutureStrategic Automation Policy in an Era of Global CompetitionResearch ReportFor more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA3764-1.About RANDRAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. To learn more about RAND, visit www.rand.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/research-integrity.RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.© 2025 RAND Corporation is a registered trademark.Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis publication and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to its webpage on rand.org is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research products for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/about/publishing/permissions. iii About This Report In this report, I examine policy strategies for managing economic growth and inequality across a wide variety of artificial intelligence (AI) futures, paying particular attention to implications for technological competition between major powers. The analysis is intended for policymakers, economic advisors, and researchers working at the intersection of technology policy and economic strategy. Instead of predicting AI’s development or deployment trajectory, I evaluate the performance of automation (dis)incentive policies across thousands of possible futures, distinguishing between vertical automation (improving already-automated tasks) and horizontal automation (automating new tasks). Through simulation and scenario exploration, I find that maintaining historical growth patterns while managing