英文【高盛】美洲交通运输2025年4月月度拼图

We highlight three major themes in this issue. 1. Major economies reported mostly mixed-to-contracting manufacturing activity in April as the US Manufacturing ISM Index remained below 50, China manufacturing PMI remained slightly above 50 but decelerated, and Mexico and Euro Zone continued with readings below 50. The U.S. manufacturing economy remained in contractionary territory in April with the ISM Manufacturing Index at 48.7, down 0.3 points versus 49.0 in March; April/March contraction comes after Feb/Jan both registered readings of expansion, which had followed 26 consecutive months of contraction (excluding the slight expansion that was short lived in March 2024), which had marked a more prolonged manufacturing downturn than was experienced during the Global Financial Crisis, when the ISM contracted for 18 consecutive months (Exhibit 2). The new manufacturing orders sub-index component remained in contractionary territory in April (Exhibit 3). China manufacturing PMI remained slightly expansionary but decelerated closer to 50 (Exhibit 13), as did China’s new manufacturing orders (Exhibit 14). The Eurozone saw its 34th consecutive month of readings below 50 in April (Exhibit 15), and Mexico manufacturing remained below expansionary territory for the tenth consecutive month after turning contractionary in July 2024 (Exhibit 16). The latest readings for U.S. manufacturing industrial production (March) indicated slightly accelerated growth with headline manufacturing IP at +1.5% YoY; durable manufacturing industrial production growth rose from +0.1% to +0.7% YoY, while non-durable IP growth decelerated from +1.8% to +1.5% (Exhibit 12). In terms of import demand trends, US West Coast containerized import growth remained firm in March (latest; Exhibit 29) with Big Three West Coast Ports’ inbound loaded containers +12% YoY (against growth of +16% in March-24), up from +5.8% YoY in February (against growth of +45% in Feb-24) and up +38% vs 2019 levels (Exhibit 30). According to the Logistics Managers Index surveys (LMI), overall inventory levels expanded in April (Exhibit 7) with the mix of still-expanding retail inventory levels (from recently contracting inventory levels as of December) alongside still-expanded B2B inventory readings (Exhibit 10); contracted downstream inventories in Jordan Alliger +1(212)357-4913 | jordan.alliger@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Andrzej Tomczyk, CFA +1(212)357-4445 | andrzej.tomczyk@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Paul Stoddard +1(801)744-3761 | paul.x.stoddard@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLCAmericas Transportation: The Monthly Mosaic: April 20256 May 2025 | 3:36PM EDT Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and o