JFE-货币和支付之战中的战略数字化

Contents lists available at ScienceDirectJournal of Financial Economicsjournal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/finec Strategic digitization in currency and payment competition$Lin William Cong a,b,c, Simon Mayer d,∗a Cornell University SC Johnson College of Business (Johnson), United States of Americab ABFER c NBER, United States of Americad Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business, United States of AmericaA R T I C L E I N F ODataset link: Replication Code (Original data)Keywords:CBDCDigital currencyMoneyPayment innovationStablecoins A B S T R A C TWe model the competition between digital forms of fiat money and private digital money. Countries digitize their currencies–by upgrading existing or launching new payment systems (including CBDCs)–to compete with foreign fiat currencies and private digital money. A pecking order emerges: less dominant currencies digitize earlier, reflecting a first-mover advantage; dominant currencies delay digitization until they face competition; the weakest currencies forgo digitization. However, delayed digitization allows private digital money to gain widespread adoption, eventually weakening fiat money’s role. We highlight how geopolitical considerations, stablecoins, and interoperability between fiat and private digital money shape the dynamics of currency competition.As technology advances, economic transactions and interactions have become increasingly digital, with the value of digital payments globally being in the hundreds of trillions of U.S. dollars according to BIS data (BIS Statistics, 2023; Glowka et al., 2023).1 While bank-centric and government-led payment systems (e.g., ACH, SWIFT, or credit cards) have traditionally dominated digital payments, non-bank providers like PayPal and M-Pesa, along with BigTech firms such as Apple and Alibaba, have gained prominence in recent decades. These non-bank payment services challenge traditional payment systems, for instance, by offering faster, more efficient payments with broader functionalities. Digitization has also enabled Hayek’s vision of private $ Toni Whited was the editor for this article. The authors are especially grateful to Toni Whited, an anonymous referee, Jean Charles Rochet, Darrell Duffie, Rod Garratt, and Harald Uhlig for detailed comments. They also thank Viral Acharya, Toni Ahnert, Kathrin Assenmacher, Ravi Bansal, Alexander Bechtel, Morten Bech, Bruno Biais, Markus Brunnermeier, Qing Chang, Jonathan Chiu, Doug Diamond, Egemen Eren, Eugene Fama, Wenxin Du, Matthias Guennewig, Sebastian Gryglewicz, Benjamin Hebert, Zhiguo He, Zhiheng He, Zhengyang Jiang, Charles Kahn, Anil Kashyap, Todd Keister, Ralph Koijen, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Vera Lubbersen, Wenhao Li, Matteo Maggiori, Stefan Nagel, Lubos Pastor, Eswar Prasad, Adriano Rampini, Raghuram Rajan, Qihong Ruan, Fahad Saleh, Linda Schilling, Amir Sufi, Katrin Tinn, Jordan Velte, Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj, Quentin Vandeweyer, Alex Vardoulakis, Elu von Thadden, Jesus Fernandez-Vil