关税引发衰退的风险研究（高盛研究院）

ISSUE 138 | April 17, 2025 | 3:55 PM EDTInvestors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.The Trump Administration’s dramatic tariff moves have upended decades of US trade policy, sparking a rapid reassessment of the US and global economic outlook and a surge in tariff-induced recession fears. What lies ahead for the US economy amid this radical policy shift—and the uncertainty around it—is Top of Mind. We speak to three economy-watchers about their views on recession risk: Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman (a recession seems likely, owing largely to uncertainty, which any policy reversals would only enhance), GS’ Jan Hatzius (recession isn’t the base case but the risk of one is elevated, though policy reversal would be stabilizing), and American Compass’ Oren Cass (there’s no reason Trump’s trade policies would need to cause a recession, and they should lead to better US economic outcomes). We then assess how vulnerable markets are to recession (quite) and how to protect portfolios as well as address what this all means for China and what—if any—tariff off-ramps exist (few).“ INTERVIEWS WITH: Paul Krugman, Professor, City University of New York’s Graduate Center, Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences winner Oren Cass, Founder and Chief Economist, American Compass Jan Hatzius, Head of Global Investment Research and Chief Economist, Goldman Sachs MARKETS: RECESSION-EXPOSED Dominic Wilson and Vickie Chang, GS Markets Research USTS: WORSENING HEDGE, BUT NO CRISIS Lotfi Karoui and William Marshall, GS Markets Research HEDGING RECESSION: A GUIDE Christian Mueller-Glissmann, GS Multi-Asset Strategy Research LATAM: TRADE LESSONS LEARNED THE HARD WAY Alberto Ramos, GS LatAm Economics Research US-CHINA TRADE: SAME GAME, NEW RULES Hui Shan, GS China Economics Research POTENTIAL TARIFF OFF-RAMPS Alec Phillips, GS US Economics Research WHAT’S INSIDEIt’s not the size of the [trade] policy shift, but the uncertainty around it that could cause a recession… [and] at this point, policy reversals may actually worsen the situation because they would enhance uncertainty. - Paul KrugmanI don't disagree that the uncertainty effect could inflict ongoing damage to the economy. But I do think a pullback on tariff policy would nevertheless help stabilize conditions in the near term. - Jan HatziusThere is no reason the trade policies the Administration is pursuing would need to cause a recession. On the contrary, they should produce a great deal of investment and, more broadly, better economic outcomes for America. - Oren Cass “Allison Nathan | allison.nathan@gs.com Jenny Grimberg | jenny.grimberg@gs.com Ashley Rhodes | ashley.rhodes@gs.com TARIFF-INDUCED RECESSION RISK Note: The following is a redacted version of the original report published April 17,