高盛-关税、去全球化和减碳的成本（英）

Michele Della Vigna, CFA +39 02 8022-2242michele.dellavigna@gs.com Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Milan branch EQUITY RESEARCH | 25 February 2025 | 5:21AM CETTariffs, deglobalization and the cost of decarbonizationCarbonomicsAlberto Gandolfi +39 02 8022-0157alberto.gandolfi@gs.comGoldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Milan branchOur updated Carbonomics cost curve considers >100 different applications for decarbonization tech across key emitting sectors, reflecting technological innovation and a growing push for local supply chains and tariffs. Our four key conclusions: Innovation delivers, but is two-speed this year: Technological innovation continues to lower the decarbonization cost curve as the lower half of the cost curve moves down on average by 7% yoy. However, more-expensive technologies in hard-to-abate sectors are becoming more expensive. This is our fifth Carbonomics cost curve, and technological innovation has delivered a cumulative 45% decline for the lower 50% of the cost curve since 2019. Batteries, solar and biofuels drive decarbonization costs down; decarbonizing industry remains most challenging: Batteries see the most cost improvement, lowering the cost of decarbonizing passenger transport and the cost of solar paired with battery storage by 30%+. Standalone solar power generation costs have fallen 12% yoy, while biofuels have become 40% cheaper. Conversely, we see little progress in industry, mostly on a lack of progress with hydrogen-dependent technologies. Deglobalization could add 30% to decarbonization costs: Some clean technologies are manufactured locally (bio-energy, grids, electrolysers), but others have a dominant, global, low-cost supplier (solar, batteries) that continues to gain cost competitiveness, raising questions over the benefits of local manufacturing vs. imports. We flex our Carbonomics cost curve, measuring the cost of decarbonization based on the lowest-cost global supplier, vs. local production in the US/Europe. This shows that a 115%/55% average import tariff is needed for Western clean tech production to be competitive in solar panels/batteries, and would result in a 30% rise in the Carbonomics cost curve. Lower gas prices would foster de-carbonization and lower the power Carbonomics cost curve by 20%: In view of growing LNG supply from 2026 and a potential restart of Russian gas flows lowering gas prices, we find that the benefit of accelerated coal-to-gas switching more than offsets the negative impact on renewable economics Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affilia