国际清算银行-气候相关物理风险的供应链传递（英）

BIS Working Papers No 1260 Supply chain transmission of climate-related physical risks by Douglas K.G. Araujo, Fernando Linardi and Luis Vissotto Monetary and Economic Department April 2025 JEL classification: E32, L14, Q54, R15 Keywords: climate-related physical risks, precipitation anomalies, supply chains, GDP growth BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) Supply chain transmission of climate-related physical risks∗Douglas K.G. Araujo1, Fernando Linardi2, Luis Vissotto31Bank for International Settlements, douglas.araujo@bis.org2Banco Central do Brasil, fernando.linardi@bcb.gov.br3Banco Central do Brasil, luis.vissotto@bcb.gov.brAbstractHow do climate anomalies affect GDP growth, and how do trade connections help under-stand this impact? We address these questions exploring local fluctuations in temperatureand precipitation coupled with data on supply chain linkages between municipalities in Brazil.GDP growth falls with local anomalous dry spells and to a lower extent, also wet spells. Muchof this effect is attributable to moderate levels of climate anomaly. This impact is sufficientlymaterial to transmit across supply chain connections to other municipalities. Focusing on pairsof distant municipalities to avoid common climate shocks, municipalities whose customer firmssuffer dry spells have between 1 and 2 percentage points (p.p.) lower GDP growth. This supplychain shock also leads to lower import growth and weaker labour market metrics, suggesting anoverall lower level of economic activity. We also examine the major economic sectors separatelyand find that agricultural activity is more sensitive to supply chain transmission of physicalshocks, including moderate ones, than manufacturing (which responds mainly to intense sup-ply chain shocks) or services. This suggests that the local economic mix can be a potentiallyimportant driver of effect heterogeneity. Using a counterfactual analysis, we estimate also thatsupply chain spillovers from climate change varies substantially over the years but can leadto 1 p.p. lower growth on average. Keywords: Climate-related physical risks. Precipitationanomalies. Supply chains. GDP growth. JEL Codes: E32, L14, Q54, R15.1IntroductionThe macroeconomic impacts of physical shocks and their amplification mechanisms continue tobe an important knowledge gap (Battiston, Dafermos, and Monasterolo (20