世界银行-盘点，2025年3月：电气化之旅：越南的电动交通转型（英）

TAKING STOCKMARCH 2025ELECTRIFYING JOURNEYS E-mobility Transition in Viet NamTAKING STOCKMARCH 2025ELECTRIFYING JOURNEYS E-mobility Transition in Viet Nam@2024 The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.orgThis work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank and its Board of Executive Directors. The World Bank do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of the World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC, 20433, USA, Fax: 202-522-2625; email: pubrights@worldbank.org.Cover design by Le Bros, photo credit @shutterstock.comTABLE OF CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARY iRecent Economic Developments iOutlook and Policy Implications vSpecial Focus: E-mobility transition viChapter 1. Economic Developments and Prospects 81.1 Recent Economic Developments 9Growth accelerated in 2024 driven by a strong rebound in exports 9Manufacturing led the recovery of output, investment, and jobs 12Household consumption remained stable amid positive wage growth and a nascent property sector recovery 15The balance of payment deficit widened as the current account surplus was offset by capital outflows 18Monetary policy remained accommodative, while intervening to contain FX pressures 19Under-disbursement of public investments led to fiscal consolidation 22Electricity intensity of GDP increased 241.2 Outlook and Policy Implications 27Outlook remains positive, but with heightened uncertainties 27Policy Implications 29Chapter 2. E-mobility Transition 312.1 Context 322.2 What does the e-mobility transition entail? 342.3 E-mobility scenarios 372.4 Impact on electricity demand 402.5 Impact on GHG emissions 432.6 Economic impact 452.7 Policy recommendations 47Figure 1.1. Viet Nam was the fastest-growing developing economy in East Asia in 2024 9Figure 1.2. GDP growth was driven by a strong rebound in exports 9Figure 1.3. Private consumption remains a moderate driver of growth in Viet Nam 10Figure 1.4. GDP growth was led by industry and services 10Figure 1.5. Export-oriented manufacturing and services drove GDP 11Figure 1.6. Merchandise trade continued to recover since 2023 12Figure 1.7. Merchandise exports growth driven by strong electronics exports 12Figure 1.8. Robust manufacturing production in 2024 13Figure 1.9. PMI showcased similar dynamics as producti