全球-生物制药行业-生物制药行业投资策略：核心共识

Out on a Limb Our key above/below consensus ideas Credit Suisse (Hong Kong) Limited Manish Nigam +852 2101 7067 manish.nigam@credit-suisse.com Vaibhav Jain +852 2101 7061 vaibhav.jain@credit-suisse.com Sabrina Shao +852 2101 6305 sabrina.shao@credit-suisse.com October 2019 DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Out on a Limb: Long and short ideas Methodology 2 •We highlight key above/below consensus long/short ideas from CS AxJ universe. •We screened our AxJ coverage universe for large, liquid companies, where CS analysts’ earnings estimates are materially above/below consensus estimates. Out of our coverage universe of ~900 stocks (excluding Japan, Australia), we shortlisted ~400 stocks with market cap over US$5 bn+ and 6M ADTV of US$5 mn+. In the case of ASEAN markets, we relax the criteria to include stocks with slightly lower market cap and liquidity. •For each company, we outline our investment thesis (positive/negative), identify why we are different from the street, and highlight key catalysts on the horizon. We expect these companies to outperform/underperform over the next three to six months as respective catalysts/events play out. •We also note that our earlier basket (equal-weighted) of ten stocks () outperformed MSCI Asia ex-Japan by 700 bp over the past four months, with eight out of ten stocks beating the benchmark. Oct 2019 3 Out on a Limb: Long and short ideas Rationale behind higher/lower-than-consensus earnings Oct 2019 Note: LC – Local currency. Priced on 16-Oct-2019. O – Outperform. U – Underperform. For Mar/Jun year-end companies, 2019E implies FY20 and so on. Source: Company, IBES, CS estimates In case of BeiGene, CS estimate of losses are lower than Consensus (shown as a +ve number). 2019E2020ELONG IDEASBeiGeneBGNE.OQHealthcareO15.1 157.5 25%10%45%NmWe have similar expectations on topline growth. However, we expect R&D spend to moderate over next three years as many later stage assets will have lower clinical trial expenses.Dialog GroupDIAL.KLEnergyO 4.74.0 15%16%22%18.5 Faster ramp-up of Phase 2 (Pengerang terminals) and early recognition of revenues from Phase 3 Lens Tech.300433.SZTechO 7.4 14.912%-17%6%91.6 We expect better ASP upgrade trend from enhanced casing spec and GM improvement from company’s better execution, supporting a strong earnings recoveryNaver035420.KSTechO21.5 19200024%28%36%19.3 Consensus' concerns on potential so