世界银行-生成型人工智能：增长的催化剂还是过早去专业化的先兆？（英）

Policy Research Working Paper10915Generative AICatalyst for Growth or Harbinger of Premature De-Professionalization?Yan Liu Digital Development Global PracticeSeptember 2024 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 10915This paper presents a multi-sector growth model to eluci-date the general equilibrium effects of generative artificial intelligence on economic growth, structural transformation, and international production specialization. Using param-eters from the literature, the paper employs simulations to quantify the impacts of artificial intelligence across vari-ous scenarios. The paper introduces a crucial distinction between high-skill, highly digitalized, tradable services and low-skill, less digitalized, less-tradable services. The model’s key propositions align with empirical evidence, and the simulations yield novel and sobering predictions. Unless artificial intelligence achieves widespread cross-sector adoption and catalyzes paradigm-shifting innovations that fundamentally reshape consumer preferences, its growth benefits may be limited. Conversely, its disruptive impact on labor markets could be profound. This paper highlights the risk of “premature de-professionalization”, where arti-ficial intelligence likely shrinks the space for countries to generate well-paid jobs in high-skill services. The analysis portends that developing countries failing to adopt arti-ficial intelligence swiftly risk entrapment as commodity exporters, potentially facing massive youth underemploy-ment, diminishing social mobility, and stagnating or even declining living standards. The paper also discusses artificial intelligence’s broader implications on inequality, exploring multiple channels through which it may exacerbate or mit-igate economic disparities.This paper is a product of the Digital Development Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The author may be contacted at yanliu@worldbank.org. Generative