IMF-电力生产脱碳的经济学（英）

The Economics Of Decarbonizing Electricity ProductionGregor Schwerhoff WP/24/213IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2024 OCT© 2024 International Monetary FundWP/24/213IMF Working Paper Research Department The Economics of Decarbonizing Electricity ProductionGregor Schwerhoff* Authorized for distribution by Florence Jaumotte October 2024IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: Electricity production is the sector with the largest share of global emissions and there are many options for decarbonizing it. Identifying the lowest cost option for achieving decarbonization (and full reliability) is a complex optimization problem at the intersection of economics and engineering. Key determinants are the cost of individual technologies, the geographical potential, the complementarities between energy sources and supporting infrastructure like electricity grids and energy storage. This paper reviews the literature on the subject and draws high-level conclusions from the abundance of specialized analyses. It finds that energy-economy models have strongly changed projections of the optimal electricity mix in recent years. While the models differ in detail, models project that the share of renewable energy, mostly solar and wind power, increases steadily in a “below 2°C” scenario and becomes the dominant source of energy by 2050. An electricity system based on solar and wind power can use flexibility options as a complement instead of baseload energy. Models vary by the degree to which renewable energy is supported by carbon capture and storage, bioenergy, and nuclear energy. JEL Classification Numbers: Q42, Q43, Q47 Keywords: energy transition; energy economy modeling; climate policyAuthor’s E-Mail Address: gschwerhoff@imf.org * International Monetary Fund, gschwerhoff@imf.orgWORKING PAPERS The economics of decarbonizing electricity production Prepared by Gregor Schwerhoff IMF WORKING PAPERS Title of WP INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2 Contents 1.Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 3 2.The electricity mix ................................................................................................................................. 5 2.1 Historical trends .................................................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Model projections ............................