欧洲央行-货币政策的传导（英）

www.ecb.europa.eu © The transmission of monetary policyECB Conference on Monetary Policy 2024: bridging science and practiceFrankfurtPhilip R. LaneMember of the Executive Board7 October 20240Rubricwww.ecb.europa.eu © 1Outline•Financial transmission•Economic transmission•Inflation expectations•Sectoral shocks•Sectoral balance sheets•ConclusionsRubricwww.ecb.europa.eu © 2Sources: Bloomberg and ECB calculations.Notes: The cut-off dates for the data used for the €STR forward curves are 17 December 2021, 16 December 2022, 15 September 2023, and 3 October 2024.Policy rate path and risk-free curvePolicy pathSources: Bloomberg and ECB calculations.Notes: The slope of the risk-free yield curve is calculated as the difference between the 10y and the 2y OIS rates.Latest observations: 3 October 2024.Slope of the risk-free yield curveSources: ECB Calculations.Notes: Purchase programmes are based on book value at amortised cost.Latest observations: 27 September 2024.Evolution of Eurosystem balance sheet(percentages per annum)(percentage points)(trillion EUR)-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5202220232024202520262027Realised DFRDec 2021Dec 2022Sep 2023Latest-1.0-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.020192020202120222023202410Y-2Y3-Oct01234567820202021202220232024APPPEPPTLTROs27-Sep-24Rubricwww.ecb.europa.eu © 3Sources: ECB (BSI, MIR, MMSR) and ECB calculations. Notes: The indicator for the total cost of borrowing for firms and households are calculated by aggregating short-term and long-term rates using a 24-month moving average of new business volumes. The bank funding cost series is a weighted average of new business costs for overnight deposits, deposits redeemable at notice, time deposits, bonds, and interbank borrowing, weighted by outstanding amounts.The latest observations are for August 2024.Bank lending rates to firms and households, plus bank funding costsFinancial transmissionSources: ECB (BLS) and ECB calculations.Notes: Net percentages for credit standards are defined as the difference between the sum of the percentages of banks responding “tightened considerably” and “tightened somewhat” and the sum of the percentages of banks responding “eased somewhat” and “eased considerably”. Cumulation starts in the first quarter of 2014.Evolution of bank credit standardsSource: ECB (BSI). Notes: Bank loans to firms are adjusted for sales, securitisation and cash pooling. Bank loans to households are adjusted for sales and securitisation. The latest observations are for August 2024Credit volumes to firms and households(percentages per annum)(cumulated net percentages of banks reporting a tightening of credit standards)(annual percentage changes)0123456Jan-22Sep-22May-23Jan-24New business volumes - FirmsNew business volumes - HouseholdsOutstanding amounts - FirmsOutstanding amounts - HouseholdsBank funding costAug-24-20246810Jan-20 Dec-20 Nov-21 Oct-22 Sep-23 Aug-24Bank loans to firmsBank loans to households-100-50050100150201420162018202020222024Loans to fir