美联储-贝弗里奇曲线告诉我们软着陆的可能性是什么？（英）

Finance and Economics Discussion SeriesFederal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online)What Does the Beveridge Curve Tell Us about the Likelihood ofSoft Landings?Andrew Figura, Chris Waller2024-073Please cite this paper as:Figura, Andrew, and Chris Waller (2024).“What Does the Beveridge Curve TellUs about the Likelihood of Soft Landings?,” Finance and Economics Discussion Se-ries 2024-073.Washington:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.073.NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. What Does the Beveridge Curve Tell Us about the Likelihood of Soft Landings?* Andrew Figura and Chris Waller February 1, 2024 Abstract Any assessment of the likelihood and characteristics of a soft landing in the labor market should take into account the current state of the labor market and the likely dynamics in the labor market going forward. Modern labor market models centered around the Beveridge curve are a useful tool in this assessment. We use a simple model of the Beveridge curve to investigate what conditions are necessary for a soft landing in the labor market to occur and what the likelihood of these conditions was during the height of the pandemic-period inflation. We find that a soft landing was a plausible outcome at that time. Since then, the evolution of the labor market has borne out that prediction. *This paper was prepared for the St. Louis Fed-JEDC-SCG-SNB Gerzensee Conference on October 13-14 2023, and provides an interpretation of the U.S. labor market at that time. The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors. We would like to thank David Ratner, Charles Fleischman, the editors of the conference volume of the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control in which this paper appears, and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. All errors are our own. 1 Any assessment of the likelihood and characteristics of a soft landing in the labor market should take into account the current state of the labor market and the likely dynamics in the labor market going forward. Modern labor market models centered around the Beveridge curve are a useful tool in this assessment. We use a simple model of the Beveridge curve to investigate what conditions are necessary for a soft landing in the labor market to occur and what the likelihood of these conditions was during the height of the