Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary September 10-110272083

M Update Global Macro Commentary | Global September 10Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCAlexandra MaierStrategist Alexandra.Maier@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428 Zoe K StraussStrategist Zoe.Strauss@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0407 Lenoy DujonUS/Canada Economist Lenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2779 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+Hiromu UezatoResearch Associate Hiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8431 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Min DaiStrategist Min.Dai@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7983 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Arnav GuptaStrategist Arnav.Gupta@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0382 Risk-off tone amid global growth concerns; strong 3y UST auction; gilts underperform after UK labor data; Basel endgame re-proposal includes lower-than-previously-estimated G-SIB capital requirements; MYR outperforms; oil prices fall; DXY at 101.67 (0.2%); US 10y at 3.642% (-5.8bp).• Cautious statements from banking institutions around consumer weakness, tumbling oil prices, and China growth fears spur a risk-off sentiment, sending USTs lower alongside a broad cross-asset impact.• USTs accelerate their bull-steepening after a stronger-than-expected 3y UST auction which comes 1.7bp through, with the highest allotment to indirect participants on record.• Gilts rally alongside global duration, but underperform relative to European government bonds and USTs after UK labor data is in line with expectations, reducing the risk of a September BoE cut.• Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr says that “broad and material changes” to Bank capital proposals are warranted, highlighting a re-proposal in Basel endgame that will result in a lower-than-previously-expected increase to G-SIB Tier 1 capital requirements. • MYR (USD/MYR: -0.5%) outperforms in the region following solid local Industrial Production data and hawkish remarks from BNM Deputy Governor Zahid, who says the policy rate is likely to be kept unchanged in 2024.• Continued weakening in China’s oil demand signaled by soft import data alongside a strengthening tropical storm that could impact refineries send oil prices sharply lower; Brent crude oil futures (-3.7%) break below $70/bbl, and WTI crude oil futures fall -4.3%.Please refer to our latest Global Macro Strategist (Super Size Me), Global EM Strategist (Will a Cut Cut it?), as well as our recent publications and collaborations (EM Strategy: Asia Macro Strategy: What Do Your Peers Think about Asia/China?; EM Sovereign Credit Strategy: Rich & Cheap Watch).Developed Markets United States: A risk-off tone overtook markets on Tuesday amid an increase in downside risks to the global economic outlook. China growth concerns continued to rise after import data was softer than expected, which signaled continued weakening in Chinese Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that coul